u/Comfortable_Fly_7943

Author flipped from avoiding META to going long around $635 after strong Q4 2025 results, 22% full-year revenue growth, AI-driven ad improvements delivering clear ROI, and surging business messaging up 54% YoY with large TAM potential. The author views META as undervalued despite high capex concerns. The main stated risk is elevated 2026 capex guidance weighing on sentiment.

The author calculates Strategy holds 673,783 BTC worth roughly $61B against a $45-48B market cap, implying a 20-25% discount to fair NAV versus the historical 50-100%+ premium. The mechanism is that MSCI backed off full delisting and confirmed retention with new share caps, removing the forced-selling overhang, while continued BTC accumulation (1,286 BTC added in early Jan) and $2.25B cash reserves support more buys. The catalyst is BTC pushing back toward $100k+, which the author expects to flip the premium back hard. Main stated risk is the recent volatility and unrealized loss noise that created the discount.

The author expects the BCOM rebalancing starting around Jan 8-10 to force passive funds to sell over $5B in silver futures, with TD Securities projecting 13% of Comex silver open interest sold in two weeks, causing a likely sharp short-term pullback. He says silver will get hit harder and advises watching for volatility next week. Low post-holiday liquidity could make the move even wilder.