Author believes software companies will soon reduce capex, improving margins and revenue growth visibility, while semis lose demand. NOW is positioned as a high-growth software platform with “best risk-adjusted returns” vs. MSFT (too large) and PLTR (too expensive). Bet on a near-term rotation out of semis into software, with NOW as the preferred vehicle. Capex cuts may not materialize until 2028 (per community comment); NOW is heavily talked up and could be overbought; the thesis lacks any valuation or earnings support.
Author believes software companies will soon reduce capex, improving margins and revenue growth visibility, while semis lose demand. NOW is positioned as a high-growth software platform with “best risk-adjusted returns” vs. MSFT (too large) and PLTR (too expensive). Bet on a near-term rotation out of semis into software, with NOW as the preferred vehicle. Capex cuts may not materialize until 2028 (per community comment); NOW is heavily talked up and could be overbought; the thesis lacks any valuation or earnings support.