u/cbusoh66

The author argues ASTS is burning several hundred million dollars of cash per month with no real revenue until 2028 at the earliest, calling management incompetent. They claim serving the ~0.5% unconnected off-grid population is a poor business model given the need for over $10 billion to build and launch a satellite constellation. As concrete evidence of execution failure, they note the company promised 168 satellites by end of 2025 but launched only 7 in the last two years. The main risk implied is whether the company can manufacture or launch the satellites at all.

The post and top comments describe a circular financing scheme where Nvidia props up OpenAI to buy its own chips, creating artificial demand. This pattern raises red flags for a bubble top; if real demand falters, Nvidia’s revenue could collapse as the financing loop breaks. Short Nvidia as a bet that the AI capex cycle is nearing a peak, supported by community recognition of desperation in financing. Deal may never materialize; if it does, short-term revenue could spike. Broader AI adoption could still justify spending.