u/BigCamp8238

VG’s executed pipeline of 69.4 MTPA by 2028 and $8.2–8.5B projected 2026 EBITDA implies a forward EV/EBITDA of ~3-4x vs. Cheniere at ~10x, suggesting significant upside if execution continues. The market hates VG due to lawsuits and perceived corporate governance issues, creating a dislocation between current price (~$11, $27B market cap) and the intrinsic value of a top-tier LNG exporter. A favorable BP settlement or further project progress could trigger a re-rating. VG is a high-risk/high-reward long on a successful resolution of legal overhang and continued modular LNG scale-up. Entry at current levels offers asymmetric upside if management hits guidance. BP arbitration damages exceed $2B; construction delays at Plaquemines/CP2; LNG price downturn; additional customer lawsuits; equity dilution from further debt/equity raises.