Calls
1
u/BicycleOk7401
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Win Rate
0.0%
return
-5.0%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jul 08
$914.87
-5.0%
SCAs guarantee ~$20B annual revenue against 25% capacity, with management targeting 50%; HBM is customized, not a commodity, and demand from auto/military is growing. If risk is indeed lower due to contracted revenue and zero debt, a 4% discount rate and 32x multiple are justified, implying current price is below fair value. The stock is at a technical bottom with v-shaped recovery, presenting a buying opportunity before HBM ramp and capacity locking. DCF assumptions are unrealistic (4% WACC, zero capex, permanent peak multiples); cyclical memory downturns historically crush margins; top commenter models a fair value of $680 using 10% discount rate.
SCAs guarantee ~$20B annual revenue against 25% capacity, with management targeting 50%; HBM is customized, not a commodity, and demand from auto/military is growing. If risk is indeed lower due to contracted revenue and zero debt, a 4% discount rate and 32x multiple are justified, implying current price is below fair value. The stock is at a technical bottom with v-shaped recovery, presenting a buying opportunity before HBM ramp and capacity locking. DCF assumptions are unrealistic (4% WACC, zero capex, permanent peak multiples); cyclical memory downturns historically crush margins; top commenter models a fair value of $680 using 10% discount rate.
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u/BicycleOk7401 has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since July 2026. Most covered: MU.
