The author claims the 10-year yield approaching 5% has twice since Trump took office prompted Trump and Bessent to announce big changes (delayed/canceled tariffs, end of Iran war) that caused immediate and rapid stock rallies. The causal mechanism is that rising yields pressure policymakers into market-friendly pivots, which then lift equities. The implied catalyst is the 10-year nearing 5% now, with a short-term horizon. Main risk is that the pattern may not repeat.