Intuit trades at trailing P/E of 16.1x while growing revenue 14% YoY; QuickBooks (59% of revenue) grew 16-17%; buybacks cover ~13.5% of market cap. Market fears about AI/IRS disruption and workforce cuts are overblown; the current price reflects a permanent decline narrative not supported by fundamentals. Deep-value opportunity in a high-quality business with pricing power, conservative leverage, and a wide economic moat that will revert to fair value as record profits persist. Accelerated AI disruption of TurboTax beyond two years; management’s expense reclassification could hide true margin deterioration; macroeconomic slowdown hitting SME spending on QuickBooks.
Intuit trades at trailing P/E of 16.1x while growing revenue 14% YoY; QuickBooks (59% of revenue) grew 16-17%; buybacks cover ~13.5% of market cap. Market fears about AI/IRS disruption and workforce cuts are overblown; the current price reflects a permanent decline narrative not supported by fundamentals. Deep-value opportunity in a high-quality business with pricing power, conservative leverage, and a wide economic moat that will revert to fair value as record profits persist. Accelerated AI disruption of TurboTax beyond two years; management’s expense reclassification could hide true margin deterioration; macroeconomic slowdown hitting SME spending on QuickBooks.