u/AlfrescoDog

Author cites Powell and Waller saying payroll data is overstated, and expects the final benchmark revision released with the January 2026 Employment Situation report on Feb 11, 2026 at 08:30 ET to show a large downward revision that makes the market red. He is putting 80% of his play on IWM puts (Feb 11 262, Feb 13 259, Feb 13 256), so the underlying proxy is the IWM ETF. He explicitly does not expect a crash or correction and says a major bullish offset is the risk.

The author argues Karman Holdings benefits from structural, not episodic, demand because its specialized structures, subsystems, and assemblies are used in missile defense, hypersonic systems, and next-generation launch vehicles, with revenue, EBITDA, and backlog all growing at double digits. The investment mechanism is exposure to multiple long-duration production cycles—missile inventory replenishment, hypersonic development, and national-security launch systems—and it supplies more than one launch platform, including Blue Origin's New Glenn and ULA's Vulcan, reducing reliance on any single program. The stated horizon is long-term. The author flags that the P/E looks high because of 2025 acquisitions.