u/alfred250

MNDY trades at ~3x cash ($1.2B cash vs $3.5B market cap) with $1.47B FY26 revenue guidance (+19-20% YoY) and 29% FCF margin. The massive buyback ($870M authorized, $553M in Q1 2026 alone) shows management confidence; combined with strong cash and growing margins, the stock is pricing in minimal growth. The author sees a deep value opportunity in a high-quality SaaS business trading at a distressed multiple, with catalysts from buybacks and potential AI-driven margin expansion. Slowing revenue growth (24% → 19-20%), competitive pressure from CRM giants (Salesforce, HubSpot), macro headwinds reducing enterprise spend, or execution risk in AI integration.

The author claims Ferrari should trade closer to Hermès than to a mass-market automaker because its high-net-worth customer base, over-two-year order book, pricing power and allocation dynamics insulate it from macro cycles. He argues a Hermès-level earnings multiple on trailing EPS would imply a share price roughly 60% higher than current levels. He sees recent analyst downgrades tied to the F80 rollout cadence and EV underinvestment as short-term sentiment rather than fundamental deterioration, and expects a push into the low $400s shortly with a $500 valuation being easy.