Adobe’s stock dropped from ~$600 to ~$200; the author believes competitive AI risks are already priced into the current multiple. If ARR stabilizes and leadership improves, the stock could re-rate upward from a compressed valuation, creating a mean-reversion opportunity. The author holds a long position and argues the downside is limited at current levels; a medium-term recovery play based on value compression. Continued ARR deceleration, no CEO/CFO change, or AI disruption worsening could push the stock lower.
Adobe’s stock dropped from ~$600 to ~$200; the author believes competitive AI risks are already priced into the current multiple. If ARR stabilizes and leadership improves, the stock could re-rate upward from a compressed valuation, creating a mean-reversion opportunity. The author holds a long position and argues the downside is limited at current levels; a medium-term recovery play based on value compression. Continued ARR deceleration, no CEO/CFO change, or AI disruption worsening could push the stock lower.