The author argues that a complicated multi-fund portfolio is a behavioral trap that investors will abandon when parts underperform, and recommends AVGE as a simpler alternative. The mechanism is that simplicity improves the odds of sticking with the strategy over a 30-year horizon, which the author claims will outperform the complex portfolio. The stated risk is behavioral: selling out when something underperforms.
The author treats VT as the equivalent simple global equity holding to AVGE, arguing a single total-world fund beats a complicated tilted portfolio. The rationale is that complexity causes underperformance-chasing and abandonment, while a simple holding is easier to maintain for decades. The main stated risk is the investor selling out when a component lags.