The author is 100% in long-dated puts on IWM, citing that 40% of the index is unprofitable, small caps have crummy margins and high energy demand, and face a "converging shitstorm." A hypothesized energy supply shock will decimate consumer spending, spike energy costs, and block debt refinancing, disproportionately destroying vulnerable small-cap companies. A direct bearish bet on the Russell 2000 small-cap index via puts expiring December 18th. The hypothesized energy crisis does not materialize or is resolved quickly; government/Fed intervention successfully cushions the economic blow; small caps prove more resilient than expected.
The author is 100% in long-dated puts on IWM, citing that 40% of the index is unprofitable, small caps have crummy margins and high energy demand, and face a "converging shitstorm." A hypothesized energy supply shock will decimate consumer spending, spike energy costs, and block debt refinancing, disproportionately destroying vulnerable small-cap companies. A direct bearish bet on the Russell 2000 small-cap index via puts expiring December 18th. The hypothesized energy crisis does not materialize or is resolved quickly; government/Fed intervention successfully cushions the economic blow; small caps prove more resilient than expected.