Thiccy 2.2 24 ideas

Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
After 1 day
31%winrate
-1.5% avg
5W / 11L · 16/17 ideas
After 1 week
25%winrate
-3.2% avg
4W / 12L · 16/17 ideas
After 1 month
N/A
11/15 min ideas
2 winning  /  9 losing  ·  11 positions (30d)
Net: -4.7%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
SPY LONG $647.46 Mar 31
USO SHORT $126.09 Mar 27
USO SHORT $126.09 Mar 27
GLD SHORT $413.92 Mar 20
SPY LONG $666.38 Mar 18
By sector
ETF
11 ideas -5.1%
Commodity
5 ideas -5.6%
Crypto
5 ideas -11.7%
Stock
2 ideas +1.5%
sector
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
USO 3 ideas
BTC 3 ideas
GOLD 3 ideas
33% W -2.5%
SPY 3 ideas
0% W -4.9%
SILVER 2 ideas
0% W -10.2%
Best and worst calls
Markets are bidding up risk assets to pressure the administration towards a de-escalatory withdrawal, creating a conditional but positive feedback loop for equities.
SPY HIGH Mar 31, 17:46
"today's bid in risk feels like markets trying to signal that withdrawal is the only viable way forward."
𝕏 @thiccyth0t ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 17:46
Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
The user predicts a de-escalation and political face-saving solution in the Strait of Hormuz, which would reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently supporting oil prices.
USO HIGH Mar 27, 23:58
"my prediction as a geopolitical tourist is that trump gets bored with iran and withdraws. he implements a reciprocal toll that ships have to stop by in uae that goes to gcc for reparations as long as iran has their toll up. then he pretends like this whole thing never happened"
𝕏 @thiccyth0t ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 27, 2026 at 23:58
Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
This reinforces the de-escalation thesis from
USO MED Mar 27, 23:58
"i don't think he's going to send troops in and have them get slaughtered by drones and booby traps. iran looks like the bad guy if they don't fully open the strait after long enough. he moves on to cuba and waits for iran to eventually crumble."
March 27, 2026 at 23:58
Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
The author is bearish on gold, using colloquial language to imply it is vulnerable to being "carved up" (a significant price drop), likely based on the attached chart.
GLD MED Mar 20, 19:57
"gold lookin like a thanksgiving turkey"
𝕏 @thiccyth0t ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 20, 2026 at 19:57
The author has taken profit on long oil positions, believing the recent headline-driven rally has peaked and the market will consolidate before physical supply issues cause a larger move higher in several weeks.
USO HIGH Mar 19, 20:07
"main reason i TPed my long oil short risk positions early this morning was because I think we've reached some local crescendo in escalatory headlines and it'll take a few more weeks for physical realities to start larger panic"
𝕏 @thiccyth0t ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 19, 2026 at 20:07
The author believes a reflexive market dynamic is in play, forcing prices higher toward extreme "right tail" outcomes as participants are afraid to sell and miss further upside.
SPY MED Mar 18, 17:50
"So every day we drift closer to the right tail all this financial engineering is trying to shove under the bed."
𝕏 @thiccyth0t ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 18, 2026 at 17:50
@goodalexander looks like he he seeded palantir with 30m in 2003 while only having 100ms so I guess that can count as hyper gambling
PLTR Mar 07, 17:36
March 07, 2026 at 17:36
Short online gambling/speculation platforms as the retail capital base fueling them is shrinking and dependent on non-recurring capital injections.
DKNG MED Mar 07, 05:25
"[T]he casino relies on one time stimmy redistribution events to refill the tank"
𝕏 @thiccyth0t ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 07, 2026 at 05:25
The speaker explicitly states, "Zcash looks really good here is pretty much my only take." This call is made in the context of the US government potentially needing to refund $175 billion in tariffs with "no plan to refund this money," implying further debasement or fiscal chaos. Privacy assets are viewed as a hedge against systemic financial mismanagement. A high-conviction contrarian play on privacy coins amidst fiscal irresponsibility. Regulatory crackdowns on privacy coins or lack of adoption compared to transparent chains.
ZEC Thread Guy Feb 21, 21:21
Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
Foreign markets have historically underperformed the US because foreign capital (Sovereign Wealth Funds) flowed into the US market. If the US market falters or the dollar weakens significantly due to the trade deficit dynamics, foreign capital may repatriate. It is easier for Sweden to invest in Sweden than the US if the US "Ponzi" dynamic breaks. Potential for a "death trade" reversal (Long International / Short US) if capital flows shift away from the US. The US market continues to act as a global liquidity black hole, crushing foreign equities.
EFA Thread Guy Feb 21, 21:21
Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
Gold is hitting all-time highs while Bitcoin remains stagnant/lower than it was in April 2025. While the long-term thesis for Bitcoin remains ("Bitcoin is the truth"), the current macro flows are favoring Gold due to central bank accumulation. The market is signaling it is "Gold first, then Bitcoin," not both simultaneously. Neutral/Watch in the short term until the rotation from Gold to Bitcoin occurs. Continued dominance of Gold as the preferred store of value for foreign sovereigns.
BTC Thread Guy Feb 21, 21:21
Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
Trump's massive tariffs were struck down, replaced by a temporary, lower 10% global tariff until July. Tariffs act as friction on the bottom line of global US companies. The removal or reduction of these tariffs removes that friction, effectively boosting margins and encouraging trade volume. Short-term bullish for US indices as corporate earnings face fewer headwinds. Trump finding a new legislative path to reimpose high tariffs after the July deadline.
QQQ SPY DIA Thread Guy Feb 21, 21:21
Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
The Supreme Court struck down high tariffs, meaning trade barriers are lowering. Lower tariffs mean the US imports more goods, sending more USD abroad (widening the trade deficit). Historically, foreigners recycled these dollars into US Treasuries. However, since the US froze Russian reserves, foreign central banks no longer trust US debt as a safe haven. Instead of buying Treasuries, they are using the excess dollars to buy Gold. As trade increases and dollars flow out of the US, the marginal buyer of Gold (foreign entities) grows stronger. A reversal in US foreign policy regarding asset seizures or a sudden strengthening of the USD that forces foreign liquidation.
GOLD Thread Guy Feb 21, 21:21
Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant
Thiccy (Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant) | 24 trade ideas tracked | USO, BTC, GOLD, SPY, SILVER | Twitter, YouTube | Buzzberg