Steven Wieting 5.0 2 ideas

The AI trade, encompassing hardware and software, is not dependent on the cyclical performance of the economy because CapEx plans are already funded. This independence, combined with an expected 88% gain in US semiconductor EPS this year, makes the semiconductor sector a strong outperformer regardless of broader economic weakness.

Oil prices have moved $15 higher for delivery at year-end due to the supply shock from the Straits of Hormuz closures, creating binding constraints on transportation and storage. The longer the straits remain shut, the greater the upward pressure on oil, making this a key risk to monitor for potential further price increases until the supply route reopens.