The oil price drop is based on expectation of a Trump speech hinting at de-escalation, but the Strait of Hormuz remains shut with no clear reopening timeline. Physical damage to regional infrastructure means reopening could take weeks/months. There is a disconnect between paper market optimism and physical market reality (e.g., record jet fuel prices). If the strait does not open quickly, the current price drop is unsustainable. The sector faces high uncertainty and potential for sharp reversals if geopolitical optimism fades, making it risky. A swift, credible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.