Short-term Bitcoin faces a significant overhang from Strategy's large leveraged position (4% of supply), which may force selling if Bitcoin does not rise. Large investors are hesitant to allocate, making more downside likely. He would not be surprised if current levels are not the bottom.
Estée Lauder posted 4% sales growth (first time in 3 years). They have a diversified manufacturing footprint: 5 sites in North America, 3 in Europe, 1 in Japan. The market is indiscriminately selling consumer goods stocks on tariff fears. However, EL's "produce where you sell" strategy insulates them from cross-border tariffs better than peers who manufacture centrally and export. Additionally, strong growth in China skincare suggests the turnaround is working despite macro headwinds. Long EL as a tariff-resilient turnaround play. Continued weakness in US consumer confidence or a total collapse in Chinese luxury spending.
Estée Lauder posted 4% sales growth (first time in 3 years). They have a diversified manufacturing footprint: 5 sites in North America, 3 in Europe, 1 in Japan. The market is indiscriminately selling consumer goods stocks on tariff fears. However, EL's "produce where you sell" strategy insulates them from cross-border tariffs better than peers who manufacture centrally and export. Additionally, strong growth in China skincare suggests the turnaround is working despite macro headwinds. Long EL as a tariff-resilient turnaround play. Continued weakness in US consumer confidence or a total collapse in Chinese luxury spending.