Sonja Marten

Coordinated US-Japan intervention is a much smarter move than Japan acting alone. It sends a very strong signal to markets that there could be further intervention, likely serving to draw a limit to further USD/JPY upside and wiping out speculative yen short positions. Speculating against the yen is no longer a free lunch.

The Strait of Hormuz is at a "near-total halt." Marten notes that if this persists, "20% of supply that will be missing... cannot be replaced" by Venezuela or US fracking quickly. The market is currently pricing a "short war." If the strait remains closed for weeks (as implied by the naval reality), the risk premium must re-rate oil toward the $110+ worst-case scenario models. LONG Oil and Energy Producers as a hedge against prolonged closure. US/Iran reach a sudden diplomatic breakthrough; demand destruction from global recession.

The Strait of Hormuz is at a "near-total halt." Marten notes that if this persists, "20% of supply that will be missing... cannot be replaced" by Venezuela or US fracking quickly. The market is currently pricing a "short war." If the strait remains closed for weeks (as implied by the naval reality), the risk premium must re-rate oil toward the $110+ worst-case scenario models. LONG Oil and Energy Producers as a hedge against prolonged closure. US/Iran reach a sudden diplomatic breakthrough; demand destruction from global recession.