Sonja Marten 2.9 3 ideas

Sonja Marten states the U.S. dollar's role as a safe haven is "capped" due to lingering damage to trust from "Trump's erratic policy style" and because the U.S. is not immune to the war's inflationary impact on consumers. While the dollar benefits from a lack of alternatives, its upside is limited by fiscal/policy credibility concerns and the fact that the U.S., despite being a net energy exporter, still suffers from higher consumer energy prices. The dollar may not exhibit significant strength as a safe haven in this specific crisis, suggesting a neutral outlook relative to typical risk-off episodes. A severe escalation that triggers a classic, unambiguous flight-to-quality rush, overwhelming the cited structural concerns.

The Strait of Hormuz is at a "near-total halt." Marten notes that if this persists, "20% of supply that will be missing... cannot be replaced" by Venezuela or US fracking quickly. The market is currently pricing a "short war." If the strait remains closed for weeks (as implied by the naval reality), the risk premium must re-rate oil toward the $110+ worst-case scenario models. LONG Oil and Energy Producers as a hedge against prolonged closure. US/Iran reach a sudden diplomatic breakthrough; demand destruction from global recession.