Calls
2
Sonja Marten
Chief Economist, DZ Bank
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+9.1%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 06
$108.77
+15.7%
The Strait of Hormuz is at a "near-total halt." Marten notes that if this persists, "20% of supply that will be missing... cannot be replaced" by Venezuela or US fracking quickly. The market is currently pricing a "short war." If the strait remains closed for weeks (as implied by the naval reality), the risk premium must re-rate oil toward the $110+ worst-case scenario models. LONG Oil and Energy Producers as a hedge against prolonged closure. US/Iran reach a sudden diplomatic breakthrough; demand destruction from global recession.
The Strait of Hormuz is at a "near-total halt." Marten notes that if this persists, "20% of supply that will be missing... cannot be replaced" by Venezuela or US fracking quickly. The market is currently pricing a "short war." If the strait remains closed for weeks (as implied by the naval reality), the risk premium must re-rate oil toward the $110+ worst-case scenario models. LONG Oil and Energy Producers as a hedge against prolonged closure. US/Iran reach a sudden diplomatic breakthrough; demand destruction from global recession.
Commodities
Long
Mar 06
$56.57
+2.5%
The Strait of Hormuz is at a "near-total halt." Marten notes that if this persists, "20% of supply that will be missing... cannot be replaced" by Venezuela or US fracking quickly. The market is currently pricing a "short war." If the strait remains closed for weeks (as implied by the naval reality), the risk premium must re-rate oil toward the $110+ worst-case scenario models. LONG Oil and Energy Producers as a hedge against prolonged closure. US/Iran reach a sudden diplomatic breakthrough; demand destruction from global recession.
The Strait of Hormuz is at a "near-total halt." Marten notes that if this persists, "20% of supply that will be missing... cannot be replaced" by Venezuela or US fracking quickly. The market is currently pricing a "short war." If the strait remains closed for weeks (as implied by the naval reality), the risk premium must re-rate oil toward the $110+ worst-case scenario models. LONG Oil and Energy Producers as a hedge against prolonged closure. US/Iran reach a sudden diplomatic breakthrough; demand destruction from global recession.
Thematic ETFs
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Sonja Marten has 2 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 2 tickers since March 2026. Most covered: XLE, BNO.
