"I do not think that they will be a constraint to Walsh being in practice, to Walsh being confirmed... in time for him to be on there for the June meeting." "Walsh" (referring to Kevin Warsh) is historically known as a sound-money, hawkish conservative. His impending confirmation by June, combined with Powell potentially staying on to resist political pressure, suggests the Fed will actively resist the Trump administration's demands for aggressive monetary easing. A central bank that remains tighter-for-longer to prove its independence, especially amidst high fiscal deficits, will drive long-end yields higher, which inversely crushes long-duration bond prices. SHORT TLT as the Fed's composition becomes more orthodox and resistant to political pressure for rate cuts. A sudden macroeconomic shock or deflationary data forces the Fed to cut rates aggressively regardless of political dynamics, causing long-duration bonds to rally.