The US-Iran conflict has demonstrated that Iran can exert meaningful control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the US agreement may have given Iran a degree of control beyond the immediate term. This creates an enduring risk premium for energy supplies, and investors should place a higher premium on Brent crude.
US hyperscalers are spending $700B+ on CapEx, but the path to attractive returns on invested capital is unclear, especially on the American side. Chinese AI models may gain market share, making monetization even harder. Better positioned are the hardware companies that sell into AI regardless of which model provider wins, and energy infrastructure plays that feed data center buildout.