Raoul Pal 5.0 46 ideas
Founder & CEO, Real Vision
After 1 day
62%winrate
+0.1% avg
15W / 9L · 24/33 ideas
After 1 week
67%winrate
+2.2% avg
14W / 7L · 21/33 ideas
After 1 month
60%winrate
+0.0% avg
12W / 8L · 20/33 ideas
By sector
Crypto
24 ideas
+3.8%
ETF
12 ideas
+1.2%
Stock
6 ideas
-2.9%
Commodity
2 ideas
-44.3%
sector
2 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
BTC
13 ideas
71% W
-2.9%
SOL
5 ideas
75% W
+3.0%
ETH
3 ideas
—
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SPY
2 ideas
0% W
-6.1%
QQQ
2 ideas
0% W
-5.0%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
ZEC LONG
+61.8%
When discussing the "anti-rebellion" and privacy against institutions, Pal explicitly says: "Privacy... that's the other...
Mar 08
SOXX LONG
+14.6%
1. THE FACT: Raoul Pal dismisses debates about "when AGI" and "It's never happening! Not with current LLMs!" by stating,...
Dec 22
BTC LONG
+9.2%
1. THE FACT: Raoul Pal shares his "latest macro thesis presentation at @solana Breakpoint in Abu Dhabi."
2. THE BRIDGE: ...
Dec 18
Worst calls
WTI SHORT
-44.3%
@fejau_inc Is he going to arb the strategic oil reserves??? Sell futures against it and deliver if needed
Mar 05
BTC LONG
-33.0%
1. THE FACT: Raoul Pal states, "When prices are down, it's time to step up. Scrape the sofa cushions to find tokens to b...
Jan 06
COIN LONG
-11.2%
Pal mentions "Asset management industry coming into this space," "Banks coming into this space," and the tokenization of...
Mar 08
Long the Nasdaq 100 as it maintains a historically strong 97% correlation with global liquidity, which is currently hitting all-time highs.
QQQ
HIGH
Apr 15, 18:10
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Long Bitcoin as the asset has digested recent liquidity crunches and is poised to reach new highs driven by an improving business cycle and fading geopolitical risks.
BTC
HIGH
Apr 15, 18:10
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Rising global and regional liquidity metrics are a bullish macro signal for risk assets, suggesting a long position in equities.
SPY
MED
Apr 08, 19:56
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
The author posits a high-impact, low-probability geopolitical scenario of a lasting Middle East peace and Iranian reintegration, which would be bearish for oil prices and related assets.
OIH
HIGH
Apr 08, 02:24
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Long-term outperformance of ETH vs. BTC due to smart contract platforms capturing value from total economic activity, a larger TAM than BTC's store of value.
BTC
ETH
HIGH
Apr 07, 23:40
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Raoul Pal's emphatic reply "Huge" to a crypto-related post signals a major positive development for the leading digital assets, likely driving significant market optimism.
BTC
ETH
Apr 07, 22:30
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Raoul Pal stated that crypto's total addressable market is wildly underestimated because AI agents will use crypto rails for microtransactions, calling it "the strongest narrative we will ever have." AI agents will require efficient, scalable payment and transaction systems, with crypto providing the necessary infrastructure, leading to massive adoption and value accrual. Bullish on crypto as an asset class due to exponential growth in use cases driven by AI agent adoption. AI agents might not adopt crypto as expected, or regulatory barriers could impede growth.
BTC
Forward Guidance
Mar 25, 18:10
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Raoul Pal explicitly said that banks will provide liquidity for AI investments, with regulatory changes like ESLR allowing the banking system to lever up and "go back to the banks." Similar to the late '90s Greenspan era, banks will drive lending and capital formation, supporting economic growth and asset prices as they take on a central role in funding AI-driven expansion. Positive for the finance sector as banks regain their role in providing leverage and liquidity, potentially boosting profitability. Economic downturn or policy reversals that constrain bank lending, or failure of AI investments to materialize.
XLF
Forward Guidance
Mar 25, 18:10
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Pal discusses "high velocity, massive use case markets" and notes that "memecoins... drove a lot of value in itself to Solana." He later emphasizes that AI agents will need rails for micropayments (sub-cent) which stablecoins cannot handle. Solana's architecture is designed for high-velocity, low-cost transactions. If AI agents and high-frequency tokenized markets (futures, equities) move on-chain, they require a high-throughput chain like Solana rather than a store-of-value chain like Bitcoin. Long Solana as the infrastructure play for high-velocity economic activity and AI agent commerce. Network outages or centralization concerns; competition from other high-performance L1s (e.g., Sui, Aptos).
SOL
Milk Road Daily
Mar 08, 14:00
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Pal states that using a log regression channel based on Metcalfe's Law (network adoption), the crypto market cap is projected to reach "$100 trillion by 2032, 2034." He notes Bitcoin is now accepted as "collateral" by the traditional system. Bitcoin is the primary asset driving this regression channel. As the "pristine collateral" of this new system, it captures the majority of the store-of-value premium as institutions and banks enter the space. Long-term accumulation of Bitcoin is the safest play to capture the secular trend. Regulatory crackdowns or a breakdown in the log regression model (adoption stalls).
BTC
Milk Road Daily
Mar 08, 14:00
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
Pal mentions "Asset management industry coming into this space," "Banks coming into this space," and the tokenization of equities, fixed income, and futures. While Pal describes the trend, the direct beneficiaries in the equity market are the infrastructure providers. BlackRock (BLK) is leading the tokenization effort (BUIDL fund), and Coinbase (COIN) provides the custody and exchange rails for these institutions. Long the "picks and shovels" of institutional adoption. Regulatory hurdles for US banks holding crypto; fee compression in the ETF/custody space.
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...
When discussing the "anti-rebellion" and privacy against institutions, Pal explicitly says: "Privacy... that's the other one, right? Zcash, that's a big fight to come." As the financial system becomes transparent and on-chain (tokenization), there will be a counter-demand for privacy and anonymity. Zcash is the specific asset named to capture this "rebellion" value. Long Zcash as a contrarian hedge against total financial surveillance. Severe regulatory risk (delistings) as governments generally oppose privacy coins.
ZEC
Milk Road Daily
Mar 08, 14:00
Founder & CEO, Real Vision...