Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury 4.5 6 ideas

Oil prices are around $100, and if the US-Iran deal does not go through, the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to much higher oil prices due to supply disruptions.

Equities have been trading on hopes of a deal, and if the US-Iran negotiations fail, there could be a significant correction across the board as markets price in higher oil prices and economic disruption.

Banks have shown resilience in Q1 earnings, but with the Strait of Hormuz blockade and high oil prices, prolonged disruption could cripple loan demand and credit quality in the back half of the year, making forward guidance risky.

1. The Fact: Al-Hammoury states, "Tech is still on my watch list... Oracle, for example, we were down over about 40 to 45% from the peak... Microsoft, Nvidia... names would be nice to have at least on my long term portfolio, especially after that dip." 2. The Bridge: Despite geopolitical panic, AI CapEx spending remains robust (~$450B mentioned). The strategist views the war-induced sell-off as a liquidity shock rather than a fundamental break in the AI thesis. The "dip" provides an entry point for structural winners. 3. The Verdict: LONG high-quality tech/AI names. If oil hits $100+, inflation expectations rise, forcing the Fed to hike rates, which crushes long-duration tech assets.