Nik Modi

"Primo Brands. They're US centric only... completely domestic produced. So any issues with products getting here from overseas, I think benefits them... Church and Dwight is another name that we like. You know, they have a big value end of their portfolio... and they have a lot of dry powder for M&A." As global supply chains face disruption from Middle East tensions and rising international logistics costs, companies with purely domestic production will avoid severe margin compression. Furthermore, as consumers get squeezed by energy inflation, they will trade down to value-oriented brands, allowing companies with strong balance sheets to acquire distressed competitors. LONG PRMW and CHD due to their defensive domestic positioning, insulation from overseas shipping costs, and value-oriented product lines. The turnaround at PRMW could stall; CHD might overpay for M&A targets; broader consumer spending weakness could eventually impact even value-tier brands.