Michael Halen

With the sale of struggling Pizza Hut, Yum! Brands will now focus on its two growth engines: Taco Bell and KFC. Taco Bell is a 'gold standard in QSR,' an 'absolute machine' with best-in-class marketing and deep talent. KFC has very strong international unit growth and a U.S. turnaround that is 'starting to show some signs of life.' As a result, the remaining company will grow faster than before, margins will expand, and the valuation multiple will move higher.

Cava is outperforming with same-store sales above 9% and traffic above 5% in the first half, driven by healthy Mediterranean positioning, strong value, menu innovation such as salmon and pomegranate glaze, and limited seafood competition, making it a winner in a diverging restaurant industry.

Brinker's Chili's has posted roughly 70% cumulative same-store sales growth over five years, driven by returning to its core brand, operational improvements, best-in-class marketing from the CEO and CMO, and ongoing ingredient and menu upgrades that bring customers back.

Michael Halen is more optimistic on Wendy's because its new CEO Bob Wright knows the business deeply, previously engineered an impressive turnaround at Potbelly, has energized the franchisee base, and has a plan to turn Wendy's around; the Trian co-investor reports are taken with a grain of salt.

McDonald's is "killing it" on marketing and has re-established itself as the value player in the US, avoiding the headwinds hitting peers like QSR (Burger King/Tim Hortons). In a consumer environment focused on value, MCD's scale allows it to win market share through aggressive pricing ($5 meal deals) and marketing execution (Grinch meal), while competitors struggle with deceleration. LONG MCD as the winner in the fast-food value wars. Broader consumer spending slowdown impacting all dining out.