Oil's drop below $100 is an overreaction because even if a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough occurs, supply will not restart instantaneously. There is a huge backlog of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, mines need to be cleared, and production in Gulf countries must be restarted. Additionally, thin market participation (Brent open interest at lowest since August) is exaggerating the price move, so the selloff is likely temporary and oil prices should remain supported or rebound.
Asian buyers will diversify away from the Persian Gulf due to war-related risks, leading to longer shipping hauls and higher freight prices, which won't recover quickly.