Small cap rally is sustainable because all 11 small cap sectors are outperforming their large cap counterparts for the first time in over 30 years, indicating breadth. The rally is not a short squeeze—less heavily shorted small cap stocks are outperforming heavily shorted ones. Earnings fundamentals are strong: a 1.5:1 upgrade-to-downgrade ratio, higher EPS estimates for Q3, Q4, and full year 2026, and likely over 20% EPS growth this quarter. Macro support includes six months of manufacturing expansion and strong consumer spending boosted by the World Cup and America 250.
SPYM has been selected as the default investment in the new Trump accounts, reinforcing the secular trend toward low-cost ETFs and the principle of staying invested long term. This designation is likely to drive structural inflows into SPYM.