"THE PRICES THAT WE ARE SEEING ON CRUDE FUTURES ARE SIMPLY COMPLETELY DISCONNECTED FROM GROUND REALITIES... PHYSICAL OIL MARKETS WILL REMAIN AND CONTINUE GOING UP INTO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY." The market is pricing in a quick resolution and an IEA strategic reserve release, but the physical reality is a massive shortfall of 6-7 million barrels a day due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Futures will eventually have to converge with the tight physical market. LONG USO as the futures market is currently underpricing the severe physical supply disruption. The Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly or the IEA releases a massive, sustained amount of reserves that fully covers the shortfall.