Jorge Montepeque

The current oil price of around $103 does not reflect the severe supply risk posed by a potential U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which would cut off 12 million barrels per day of Iranian oil and has no viable short-term alternatives. Given the scale of potential disruption and the need for demand destruction, oil prices should be closer to $140-$150. He expects oil to average above $100 for the rest of the year.

The United States is a net beneficiary of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions because it exports crude oil and LNG, allowing it to gain pricing power and replace lost supplies for Asian importers, benefiting from increased energy exports.