Jonathan Tyrone

Tyrone outlines a catastrophic tail risk: "God forbid that the regime actually falls before that product is verified... if it disappears and enters into the hands of an actor that we don't know about. You just compounded your problem." The speakers are describing a scenario where military success (regime change/bombing) leads to a worse outcome (loose nuclear material). This level of geopolitical chaos and uncertainty drives capital toward non-sovereign stores of value. Gold is the primary beneficiary of "fear" trades where the stability of the geopolitical order is in question. LONG. A contained, successful "surgical" outcome (which the speakers deem unlikely) would reduce the fear bid for gold.