John Rogers

Rogers believes "Experiences" will dominate consumer spending as AI frees up time. Explicitly names the cruise lines and Madison Square Garden assets (MSGE/SPHR). Consumers are prioritizing doing over owning. Cruise lines and live entertainment venues have pricing power and high demand that is sticky even in softer economies. Sphere (SPHR) specifically mentioned as using AI to revolutionize entertainment costs/experience. LONG Experience/Leisure stocks. Consumer recession curbs discretionary travel spending.

"People are still going and spending money on cruise ships or going to Las Vegas for experiences, doing things that are really the wealthy people can do." Rogers identifies a K-shaped consumption trend. While the macro outlook is bearish, the upper-income cohort remains insulated and willing to spend on high-ticket leisure. Cruise lines (RCL, NCLH) and Casino/Resorts (LVS, WYNN) are the direct beneficiaries of this specific "wealthy experience" spend, decoupling them from the broader mass-market slowdown. LONG these specific sub-sectors (Cruises/Casinos) as a relative value play against broad retail. A deeper recession that eventually drags down high-net-worth spending; geopolitical travel disruptions.

Rogers calls Financial Services "extremely cheap." He explicitly praises Lazard (LAZ) for M&A potential in a deregulated environment and Carlyle (CG) as oversold due to exaggerated private credit fears. Rogers believes the Trump administration (implied by "deregulated environment") will fuel deal-making. If rates come down (which he predicts the Fed will do to please the President), M&A activity explodes, directly benefiting advisory firms like Lazard and asset managers like Carlyle. LONG. A contrarian value play against the tech-heavy index. A "small recession" at year-end (which Rogers predicts) could freeze deal flow.

Rogers names Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) as a favorite, stating AI will make brokers more efficient rather than replacing them. The market has punished real estate services on fears that AI makes them obsolete and high rates kill commercial real estate. Rogers argues the "human touch" is still required for complex moves, and the stock is mispriced relative to its utility. LONG. Deep value play. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) collapse continues; AI displacement happens faster than anticipated.

Rogers calls Financial Services "extremely cheap." He explicitly praises Lazard (LAZ) for M&A potential in a deregulated environment and Carlyle (CG) as oversold due to exaggerated private credit fears. Rogers believes the Trump administration (implied by "deregulated environment") will fuel deal-making. If rates come down (which he predicts the Fed will do to please the President), M&A activity explodes, directly benefiting advisory firms like Lazard and asset managers like Carlyle. LONG. A contrarian value play against the tech-heavy index. A "small recession" at year-end (which Rogers predicts) could freeze deal flow.

"People are still going and spending money on cruise ships or going to Las Vegas for experiences, doing things that are really the wealthy people can do." Rogers identifies a K-shaped consumption trend. While the macro outlook is bearish, the upper-income cohort remains insulated and willing to spend on high-ticket leisure. Cruise lines (RCL, NCLH) and Casino/Resorts (LVS, WYNN) are the direct beneficiaries of this specific "wealthy experience" spend, decoupling them from the broader mass-market slowdown. LONG these specific sub-sectors (Cruises/Casinos) as a relative value play against broad retail. A deeper recession that eventually drags down high-net-worth spending; geopolitical travel disruptions.

Berkshire Hathaway has a huge moat with unique, irreplaceable businesses and will perform very well coming out of the recent downturn, given its enduring value and strong portfolio.

The major alternative asset managers like KKR, Carlyle, and Apollo will be successful in the private credit space as weaker participants get weeded out. They have the best people, capital, and scale to take advantage of bargains in both public and private markets.

Small-cap value stocks are relatively well positioned compared to large-cap growth, which is much more expensive. Investors have neglected misunderstood smaller companies not well followed, where research can uncover great value and bargains. These are 'orphan stocks' that can perform well even in a volatile economic environment.

The major alternative asset managers like KKR, Carlyle, and Apollo will be successful in the private credit space as weaker participants get weeded out. They have the best people, capital, and scale to take advantage of bargains in both public and private markets.

Rogers believes "Experiences" will dominate consumer spending as AI frees up time. Explicitly names the cruise lines and Madison Square Garden assets (MSGE/SPHR). Consumers are prioritizing doing over owning. Cruise lines and live entertainment venues have pricing power and high demand that is sticky even in softer economies. Sphere (SPHR) specifically mentioned as using AI to revolutionize entertainment costs/experience. LONG Experience/Leisure stocks. Consumer recession curbs discretionary travel spending.

Rogers believes "Experiences" will dominate consumer spending as AI frees up time. Explicitly names the cruise lines and Madison Square Garden assets (MSGE/SPHR). Consumers are prioritizing doing over owning. Cruise lines and live entertainment venues have pricing power and high demand that is sticky even in softer economies. Sphere (SPHR) specifically mentioned as using AI to revolutionize entertainment costs/experience. LONG Experience/Leisure stocks. Consumer recession curbs discretionary travel spending.

"What I worry about is that Iran does something that's extraordinarily painful... retaliation... It does make me a little scared." Rogers highlights geopolitical retaliation as a primary tail risk that the market may be underpricing. In a scenario of escalation with Iran, equities sell off while Defense Primes (ITA) and Safe Havens (GLD) bid up. This serves as a portfolio hedge against the specific "man-made crises" he discusses. LONG Defense and Gold as insurance against the specific Iran/Retaliation risk mentioned. De-escalation or diplomatic resolutions reduce the geopolitical risk premium.

"What I worry about is that Iran does something that's extraordinarily painful... retaliation... It does make me a little scared." Rogers highlights geopolitical retaliation as a primary tail risk that the market may be underpricing. In a scenario of escalation with Iran, equities sell off while Defense Primes (ITA) and Safe Havens (GLD) bid up. This serves as a portfolio hedge against the specific "man-made crises" he discusses. LONG Defense and Gold as insurance against the specific Iran/Retaliation risk mentioned. De-escalation or diplomatic resolutions reduce the geopolitical risk premium.

"People are still going and spending money on cruise ships or going to Las Vegas for experiences, doing things that are really the wealthy people can do." Rogers identifies a K-shaped consumption trend. While the macro outlook is bearish, the upper-income cohort remains insulated and willing to spend on high-ticket leisure. Cruise lines (RCL, NCLH) and Casino/Resorts (LVS, WYNN) are the direct beneficiaries of this specific "wealthy experience" spend, decoupling them from the broader mass-market slowdown. LONG these specific sub-sectors (Cruises/Casinos) as a relative value play against broad retail. A deeper recession that eventually drags down high-net-worth spending; geopolitical travel disruptions.