"If you believe that they're going to missile strike, buying oil is the correct asset trade. It's much more liquid. It'll move asymmetrically in the direction that you want." The speaker argues that while prediction markets (like Polymarket) offer signal on geopolitical events (e.g., Iran conflict), they are capital-constrained and inefficient for profit generation. The actionable trade is to use the signal from prediction markets to trade the deep-liquid underlying commodities that will react to the event (Oil and Gold). LONG Oil (USO) and Gold (GLD) as the correct vehicles to express geopolitical volatility views. Geopolitical de-escalation leading to a rapid drop in commodity risk premiums.