Jeffrey Sonnenfeld 5.0 9 ideas

"The Trump RX plan of course is developed by these private meetings with the pharma types... especially Merc and Eli Lily and J&J have been very effective at that." Companies that engage Trump privately and collectively can shape policy in their favor without triggering his public attacks. The pharmaceutical sector successfully used this playbook to navigate drug pricing policies, resulting in a plan that was much better for the industry than critics anticipated. LONG. These large pharma companies have proven they can manage political and regulatory risk under Trump by using private, collective influence to protect their margins. The presence of RFK Jr. in the administration is noted as a "pernicious problem" that could introduce unpredictable regulatory or narrative risks for the sector.

"Harley-Davidson on their own had trouble getting bikes... into the EU because of retaliatory trade barriers... President Trump took that as a personal defense and told everybody to stop buying Harley's. His stock plummeted. He got fired." Trump uses a "divide and conquer" strategy. When a company is singled out and lacks the cover of collective industry action, it becomes highly vulnerable to his public attacks, which can immediately destroy shareholder value and force leadership changes. AVOID. Companies that publicly cross the administration's political narratives or get caught alone in the crosshairs face severe, unpredictable headline risk. The news cycle moves quickly due to Trump's "wall of sound" strategy, meaning the negative impact of a boycott could be short-lived if the administration pivots to a new target.

"Arvin Krishna of IBM and tech titans would meet with him in small groups. It was extremely effective... the CEOs of Walmart, Home Depot and Costco went and met with Trump privately." Trump responds well to private, backstage diplomacy rather than public defiance or massive lobbying groups. Companies whose leadership understands this specific hub-and-spoke engagement model can successfully negotiate favorable terms and avoid his public wrath. LONG. These companies have demonstrated the political savvy required to navigate Trump's unorthodox leadership style, minimizing their regulatory risks while quietly advancing their corporate interests. Trump's ad-hoc decision-making and reliance on loyalists over experts could still unpredictably impact trade or tech policies before these CEOs have a chance to intervene.