James Turner 0.3 4 ideas

There is opportunity in European government bonds in the 2 to 5 year range because the inflation impact from the war is likely muted, growth concerns are more relevant, and the ECB is unlikely to hike rates as much as expected, leading to higher yields and income.

Multiple BDCs (Business Development Companies) are showing stress, specifically those with high exposure to Software companies. High interest rates are hurting software companies that rely on private lending. While not systemic (according to HSBC), specific lenders with high "Software" concentration in their loan books are vulnerable to defaults ("cockroaches"). AVOID Private Credit vehicles with opaque software exposure. Rate cuts alleviate pressure on borrowers faster than expected.

BlackRock states inflation is "yesterday's story" and the Fed's focus has shifted entirely to employment. While rates will come down, long-end duration remains volatile. The "sweet spot" for yield is in the short-to-medium end of the curve and high-quality credit (IG/HY) where balance sheets are strong. LONG Short-Duration Fixed Income and Credit. AVOID Long-Duration Government Bonds. Inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer.