Fidenza Macro 5.0 8 ideas

TLDR
The author details converting a long XAU/JPY position into a long GLD position due to aggressive BoJ intervention supporting the yen and broad USD weakness. They also mention stopping out of a long ES position and tightening the stop on a silver long position amid an explosive rally. The article highlights structural reallocation away from US assets as a key macro theme. • Converting long XAU/JPY to long GLD at 466.00, citing BoJ intervention and USD selloff. • Closing the JPY short position run in futures. • Stopped out of long ES but will look to buy dips. • Tightening silver long stop to 105 to lock in gains from the rally. • Noting broad USD weakness and institutional reallocation from US to foreign assets. • Links the moves to the aftermath of Liberation Day 2025, with allocation changes being executed in 2026.

January 26, 2026 at 03:11

TLDR
The author details converting a long XAU/JPY position into a long GLD position due to aggressive BoJ intervention supporting the yen and broad USD weakness. They also mention stopping out of a long ES position and tightening the stop on a silver long position amid an explosive rally. The article highlights structural reallocation away from US assets as a key macro theme. • Converting long XAU/JPY to long GLD at 466.00, citing BoJ intervention and USD selloff. • Closing the JPY short position run in futures. • Stopped out of long ES but will look to buy dips. • Tightening silver long stop to 105 to lock in gains from the rally. • Noting broad USD weakness and institutional reallocation from US to foreign assets. • Links the moves to the aftermath of Liberation Day 2025, with allocation changes being executed in 2026.

January 26, 2026 at 03:11

TLDR
Fidenza Macro discusses Trump's latest tariff threats against European countries over Greenland, causing a risk-off market episode. The author is already positioned tactically short S&P futures and long WTI crude oil, gold, and silver. He plans to cover shorts and flip long after further retaliation, while noting potential buying opportunities in uranium and copper on dips. • Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries if they don't sell Greenland to the US, creating a market scare. • Author sees this as a positioning reset similar to past tariff scares, and is waiting for Trump's retaliation before covering shorts. • Current positions: short S&P futures (entered Friday), long WTI crude oil, long gold and silver (silver bought Friday). • Uranium (URA ETF) is a potential dip-buy target if it retests $50, but not yet in position. • Gold and silver benefit from geopolitical uncertainty; gold seen as safe asset immune to seizure/sanctions. • Oil holds asymmetric upside due to potential Iran conflict and low futures positioning; copper dips supported by datacenter demand.

January 19, 2026 at 10:34

TLDR
Fidenza Macro discusses Trump's latest tariff threats against European countries over Greenland, causing a risk-off market episode. The author is already positioned tactically short S&P futures and long WTI crude oil, gold, and silver. He plans to cover shorts and flip long after further retaliation, while noting potential buying opportunities in uranium and copper on dips. • Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries if they don't sell Greenland to the US, creating a market scare. • Author sees this as a positioning reset similar to past tariff scares, and is waiting for Trump's retaliation before covering shorts. • Current positions: short S&P futures (entered Friday), long WTI crude oil, long gold and silver (silver bought Friday). • Uranium (URA ETF) is a potential dip-buy target if it retests $50, but not yet in position. • Gold and silver benefit from geopolitical uncertainty; gold seen as safe asset immune to seizure/sanctions. • Oil holds asymmetric upside due to potential Iran conflict and low futures positioning; copper dips supported by datacenter demand.

January 19, 2026 at 10:34

TLDR
Fidenza Macro discusses Trump's latest tariff threats against European countries over Greenland, causing a risk-off market episode. The author is already positioned tactically short S&P futures and long WTI crude oil, gold, and silver. He plans to cover shorts and flip long after further retaliation, while noting potential buying opportunities in uranium and copper on dips. • Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries if they don't sell Greenland to the US, creating a market scare. • Author sees this as a positioning reset similar to past tariff scares, and is waiting for Trump's retaliation before covering shorts. • Current positions: short S&P futures (entered Friday), long WTI crude oil, long gold and silver (silver bought Friday). • Uranium (URA ETF) is a potential dip-buy target if it retests $50, but not yet in position. • Gold and silver benefit from geopolitical uncertainty; gold seen as safe asset immune to seizure/sanctions. • Oil holds asymmetric upside due to potential Iran conflict and low futures positioning; copper dips supported by datacenter demand.

January 19, 2026 at 10:34

TLDR
Fidenza Macro discusses Trump's latest tariff threats against European countries over Greenland, causing a risk-off market episode. The author is already positioned tactically short S&P futures and long WTI crude oil, gold, and silver. He plans to cover shorts and flip long after further retaliation, while noting potential buying opportunities in uranium and copper on dips. • Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries if they don't sell Greenland to the US, creating a market scare. • Author sees this as a positioning reset similar to past tariff scares, and is waiting for Trump's retaliation before covering shorts. • Current positions: short S&P futures (entered Friday), long WTI crude oil, long gold and silver (silver bought Friday). • Uranium (URA ETF) is a potential dip-buy target if it retests $50, but not yet in position. • Gold and silver benefit from geopolitical uncertainty; gold seen as safe asset immune to seizure/sanctions. • Oil holds asymmetric upside due to potential Iran conflict and low futures positioning; copper dips supported by datacenter demand.

January 19, 2026 at 10:34

TLDR
Fidenza Macro outlines key macro themes for 2026, arguing that geopolitics will dominate over monetary policy, with a shift toward hard power, dedollarization, fiat debasement, and fiscal dominance. The author expects these themes to drive returns in commodities, defense, precious metals, and EM equities, but only explicitly discloses long-term positions in Brazil and South Korea ETFs. • Geopolitics (U.S.-China rivalry, military interventions) is the primary market driver, outweighing monetary policy. • Hard power and kinetic action are replacing diplomacy; defense stocks and precious metals benefit. • Dedollarization accelerates as reserve managers question U.S. financial system reliability; gold and silver are favored alternatives. • Fiat debasement risks rise due to political pressure on central banks, especially in the U.S. and Japan. • Fiscal dominance across major economies supports global equities and commodities, with EM likely outperforming the U.S. • Author holds long-term positions in EWZ (Brazil) and EWY (S. Korea) based on valuation, policy tailwinds, and AI-driven demand.

January 12, 2026 at 15:15

TLDR
Fidenza Macro outlines key macro themes for 2026, arguing that geopolitics will dominate over monetary policy, with a shift toward hard power, dedollarization, fiat debasement, and fiscal dominance. The author expects these themes to drive returns in commodities, defense, precious metals, and EM equities, but only explicitly discloses long-term positions in Brazil and South Korea ETFs. • Geopolitics (U.S.-China rivalry, military interventions) is the primary market driver, outweighing monetary policy. • Hard power and kinetic action are replacing diplomacy; defense stocks and precious metals benefit. • Dedollarization accelerates as reserve managers question U.S. financial system reliability; gold and silver are favored alternatives. • Fiat debasement risks rise due to political pressure on central banks, especially in the U.S. and Japan. • Fiscal dominance across major economies supports global equities and commodities, with EM likely outperforming the U.S. • Author holds long-term positions in EWZ (Brazil) and EWY (S. Korea) based on valuation, policy tailwinds, and AI-driven demand.

January 12, 2026 at 15:15