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Fidenza Macro 5.0 6 ideas

Substack author, Fidenza Macro
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Per mention Per thesis
ⓘ First mention per (ticker, direction)
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Total Picks
6
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Winrate (avg)
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Long / Short
5 / 1
Themes
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ENERGY
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Positions 6 Best & Worst 0 Themes 3 Timeline
Theme: Stance:
Ticker Mentions Stance Conv Entry P&L YTD Theme Thesis (click to expand) Mentioned Src
SLV ×2 LONG MED $81.02 Other Author is long silver, adding on Friday, as it benefits from the same geopolitical risk and inflation narrative as gold. Jan 19 NEWSLETTER
USO ×1 LONG HIGH $71.65 Energy Author is long WTI crude oil (March futures) based on potential Iran conflict and low oil futures positioning, expecting an asymmetric upside event. Jan 19 NEWSLETTER
GLD ×2 LONG MED $421.29 Macro Author is long gold as a safe haven benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty and de-dollarization; gold seen as non-seizable, non-sanctionable asset. Jan 19 NEWSLETTER
ES ×1 SHORT HIGH $70.11 Energy Author short S&P futures as a tactical trade on market exhaustion and positioning for a risk-off episode triggered by Trump's tariff threats. He plans to cover after a round of retaliation. Jan 19 NEWSLETTER
EWZ ×1 LONG MED $33.04 Macro Brazil benefits from high inflation easing and central bank rate cuts from a 15% peak, with global macro tailwinds supporting EM outperformance. Jan 12 NEWSLETTER
EWY ×1 LONG MED $108.38 Macro South Korea is concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix, key beneficiaries of AI hardware demand; valuations remain reasonable, and corporate governance reforms support further re-rating. Jan 12 NEWSLETTER
Best Calls
No winning calls yet
Worst Calls
No losing calls yet
MACRO
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ENERGY
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OTHER
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Author short S&P futures as a tactical trade on market exhaustion and positioning for a risk-off episode triggered by Trump's tariff threats. He plans to cover after a round of retaliation.
ES HIGH Jan 19, 10:34
"I coincidentally went tactically short S&P futures on Friday, on account of the market feeling tired and not making any upward progress."
TLDR
Fidenza Macro discusses Trump's latest tariff threats against European countries over Greenland, causing a risk-off market episode. The author is already positioned tactically short S&P futures and long WTI crude oil, gold, and silver. He plans to cover shorts and flip long after further retaliation, while noting potential buying opportunities in uranium and copper on dips. • Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries if they don't sell Greenland to the US, creating a market scare. • Author sees this as a positioning reset similar to past tariff scares, and is waiting for Trump's retaliation before covering shorts. • Current positions: short S&P futures (entered Friday), long WTI crude oil, long gold and silver (silver bought Friday). • Uranium (URA ETF) is a potential dip-buy target if it retests $50, but not yet in position. • Gold and silver benefit from geopolitical uncertainty; gold seen as safe asset immune to seizure/sanctions. • Oil holds asymmetric upside due to potential Iran conflict and low futures positioning; copper dips supported by datacenter demand.
▣ Fidenza Macro ⏲ short-term Source ↗
January 19, 2026 at 10:34
▣ Fidenza Macro
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
Author is long WTI crude oil (March futures) based on potential Iran conflict and low oil futures positioning, expecting an asymmetric upside event.
USO HIGH Jan 19, 10:34
"My long WTI Mar oil position has taken a bit of a roundtrip, but I’m staying in for now."
TLDR
Fidenza Macro discusses Trump's latest tariff threats against European countries over Greenland, causing a risk-off market episode. The author is already positioned tactically short S&P futures and long WTI crude oil, gold, and silver. He plans to cover shorts and flip long after further retaliation, while noting potential buying opportunities in uranium and copper on dips. • Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries if they don't sell Greenland to the US, creating a market scare. • Author sees this as a positioning reset similar to past tariff scares, and is waiting for Trump's retaliation before covering shorts. • Current positions: short S&P futures (entered Friday), long WTI crude oil, long gold and silver (silver bought Friday). • Uranium (URA ETF) is a potential dip-buy target if it retests $50, but not yet in position. • Gold and silver benefit from geopolitical uncertainty; gold seen as safe asset immune to seizure/sanctions. • Oil holds asymmetric upside due to potential Iran conflict and low futures positioning; copper dips supported by datacenter demand.
▣ Fidenza Macro ⏲ short-term Source ↗
January 19, 2026 at 10:34
▣ Fidenza Macro
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
Author is long gold as a safe haven benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty and de-dollarization; gold seen as non-seizable, non-sanctionable asset.
GLD HIGH Jan 19, 10:34
"I’m fortunate that the risk off driver happens to also be positive for gold and silver, both of which I’m long."
TLDR
Fidenza Macro discusses Trump's latest tariff threats against European countries over Greenland, causing a risk-off market episode. The author is already positioned tactically short S&P futures and long WTI crude oil, gold, and silver. He plans to cover shorts and flip long after further retaliation, while noting potential buying opportunities in uranium and copper on dips. • Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries if they don't sell Greenland to the US, creating a market scare. • Author sees this as a positioning reset similar to past tariff scares, and is waiting for Trump's retaliation before covering shorts. • Current positions: short S&P futures (entered Friday), long WTI crude oil, long gold and silver (silver bought Friday). • Uranium (URA ETF) is a potential dip-buy target if it retests $50, but not yet in position. • Gold and silver benefit from geopolitical uncertainty; gold seen as safe asset immune to seizure/sanctions. • Oil holds asymmetric upside due to potential Iran conflict and low futures positioning; copper dips supported by datacenter demand.
▣ Fidenza Macro ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
January 19, 2026 at 10:34
▣ Fidenza Macro
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
Author is long silver, adding on Friday, as it benefits from the same geopolitical risk and inflation narrative as gold.
SLV HIGH Jan 19, 10:34
"I’m fortunate that the risk off driver happens to also be positive for gold and silver, both of which I’m long. My purchase of silver on Friday was particularly lucky."
TLDR
Fidenza Macro discusses Trump's latest tariff threats against European countries over Greenland, causing a risk-off market episode. The author is already positioned tactically short S&P futures and long WTI crude oil, gold, and silver. He plans to cover shorts and flip long after further retaliation, while noting potential buying opportunities in uranium and copper on dips. • Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries if they don't sell Greenland to the US, creating a market scare. • Author sees this as a positioning reset similar to past tariff scares, and is waiting for Trump's retaliation before covering shorts. • Current positions: short S&P futures (entered Friday), long WTI crude oil, long gold and silver (silver bought Friday). • Uranium (URA ETF) is a potential dip-buy target if it retests $50, but not yet in position. • Gold and silver benefit from geopolitical uncertainty; gold seen as safe asset immune to seizure/sanctions. • Oil holds asymmetric upside due to potential Iran conflict and low futures positioning; copper dips supported by datacenter demand.
▣ Fidenza Macro ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
January 19, 2026 at 10:34
▣ Fidenza Macro
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
Brazil benefits from high inflation easing and central bank rate cuts from a 15% peak, with global macro tailwinds supporting EM outperformance.
EWZ HIGH Jan 12, 15:15
"I have some long-term positions in EWZ (MSCI Brazil ETF) and EWY (MSCI South Korea ETF)."
TLDR
Fidenza Macro outlines key macro themes for 2026, arguing that geopolitics will dominate over monetary policy, with a shift toward hard power, dedollarization, fiat debasement, and fiscal dominance. The author expects these themes to drive returns in commodities, defense, precious metals, and EM equities, but only explicitly discloses long-term positions in Brazil and South Korea ETFs. • Geopolitics (U.S.-China rivalry, military interventions) is the primary market driver, outweighing monetary policy. • Hard power and kinetic action are replacing diplomacy; defense stocks and precious metals benefit. • Dedollarization accelerates as reserve managers question U.S. financial system reliability; gold and silver are favored alternatives. • Fiat debasement risks rise due to political pressure on central banks, especially in the U.S. and Japan. • Fiscal dominance across major economies supports global equities and commodities, with EM likely outperforming the U.S. • Author holds long-term positions in EWZ (Brazil) and EWY (S. Korea) based on valuation, policy tailwinds, and AI-driven demand.
▣ Fidenza Macro ⏲ long-term Source ↗
January 12, 2026 at 15:15
▣ Fidenza Macro
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
South Korea is concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix, key beneficiaries of AI hardware demand; valuations remain reasonable, and corporate governance reforms support further re-rating.
EWY HIGH Jan 12, 15:15
"I have some long-term positions in EWZ (MSCI Brazil ETF) and EWY (MSCI South Korea ETF)."
TLDR
Fidenza Macro outlines key macro themes for 2026, arguing that geopolitics will dominate over monetary policy, with a shift toward hard power, dedollarization, fiat debasement, and fiscal dominance. The author expects these themes to drive returns in commodities, defense, precious metals, and EM equities, but only explicitly discloses long-term positions in Brazil and South Korea ETFs. • Geopolitics (U.S.-China rivalry, military interventions) is the primary market driver, outweighing monetary policy. • Hard power and kinetic action are replacing diplomacy; defense stocks and precious metals benefit. • Dedollarization accelerates as reserve managers question U.S. financial system reliability; gold and silver are favored alternatives. • Fiat debasement risks rise due to political pressure on central banks, especially in the U.S. and Japan. • Fiscal dominance across major economies supports global equities and commodities, with EM likely outperforming the U.S. • Author holds long-term positions in EWZ (Brazil) and EWY (S. Korea) based on valuation, policy tailwinds, and AI-driven demand.
▣ Fidenza Macro ⏲ long-term Source ↗
January 12, 2026 at 15:15
▣ Fidenza Macro
Substack author, Fidenza Macro
Positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
SLV LONG $81.02 Jan 19
USO LONG $71.65 Jan 19
GLD LONG $421.29 Jan 19
ES SHORT $70.11 Jan 19
EWZ LONG $33.04 Jan 12
EWY LONG $108.38 Jan 12
Fidenza Macro (Substack author, Fidenza Macro) | 6 trade ideas tracked | GLD, SLV, USO, EWY, EWZ | Substack | Buzzberg