Ed Yardeni 7.2 24 ideas
President, Yardeni Research
Global X Funds Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF
AI stocks corrected and are leading the market again; AI is here to stay, with big companies likely to be survivors and generate profits, potentially acquiring smaller rebranded companies.
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LONG
MED
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Emerging markets have opportunities due to large and growing middle classes that drive domestic consumer demand, healthcare demand, and industrial development, moving beyond commodity dependence.
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LONG
MED
Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF
A.I. is a lasting technological trend, and large companies involved in A.I., such as the Magnificent Seven, are likely to be survivors and profit leaders, making A.I. stocks attractive.
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LONG
HIGH
KraneShares MSCI All China Health Care Index ETF
Health care sector in emerging markets, particularly in China, has strong growth potential due to aging populations and increasing domestic demand for medical services and drugs.
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LONG
MED
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF
He is staying with the 'go global' trade, noting that markets like South Korea and Taiwan have had V-shaped recoveries and that global equities are back in fashion, expecting continued outperformance.
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LONG
MED
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil
Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, tankers that used to go to the Arabian Gulf are now coming to the United States for oil, causing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to jump above Brent crude. This trend is expected to lead to a substantial increase in U.S. oil exports over the next year or so, which would be a positive for the U.S. oil industry.
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LONG
HIGH
Technology Select Sector SPDR
States the tech comeback "absolutely" has legs and that tech got "relatively cheap again." Cites the P/E multiple falling from ~31 to 25, even hitting 22. The significant de-rating in valuation (P/E compression) after his prior call to underweight the sector (on Dec 7) has created a more attractive entry point. The valuation reset provides a foundation for renewed outperformance in the technology sector. A broader market sell-off that leads to further multiple compression beyond recent lows.
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LONG
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF
Emerging markets excluding China offer lower valuations and contain growing middle classes with strong aspirations for higher living standards. These demographic and valuation dynamics provide a more favorable growth and return profile compared to the US and China. Long emerging markets ex-China as a core component of a global diversification and value-seeking strategy. Geopolitical events or a materially stronger US dollar could pressure emerging market currencies and asset prices.
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LONG
Invesco QQQ Trust
Recommended underweighting the Magnificent 7 in early December when they traded at a 31x P/E multiple. Has now moved back to a market weight position as the multiple has fallen to 25x. The significant derating (from 31x to 25x) makes these "phenomenal growth companies" more attractive on a valuation basis within the context of his resilient earnings and economic outlook. The valuation reset presents a more favorable entry point for these core growth leaders. A recession that leads to both lower earnings (E) and a lower valuation multiple (P/E), resulting in a bear market.
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LONG
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
"Geopolitical crises present buying opportunities... stay invested in the stock market." He adds that the market is looking forward to "increased stability in the Middle East" and potentially more Abraham Accords. The market has already "bought the dip." The thesis is that the conflict is a short-term noise event, not a 1970s-style structural shock. Therefore, broad equity exposure captures the relief rally as stability returns. LONG broad equities. A wider regional war drawing in major superpowers, causing a sustained market sell-off.
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LONG
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
"Geopolitical crises present buying opportunities... stay invested in the stock market." He adds that the market is looking forward to "increased stability in the Middle East" and potentially more Abraham Accords. The market has already "bought the dip." The thesis is that the conflict is a short-term noise event, not a 1970s-style structural shock. Therefore, broad equity exposure captures the relief rally as stability returns. LONG broad equities. A wider regional war drawing in major superpowers, causing a sustained market sell-off.
—
LONG
SPDR Gold Shares
"Have some gold in your portfolio." Despite his bullishness on stocks and dismissal of the war threat, he advocates for gold as a permanent diversifier, likely due to the "sticky inflation" he mentioned regarding the PPI (Producer Price Index). LONG gold as a portfolio hedge. Real interest rates rising significantly, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
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LONG
United States Oil Fund
Yardeni states, "If this thing gets resolved fairly rapidly, as I expect, the straits will be open and the price of oil will come down rather rapidly." He notes the Iranian Navy is "already sunk." The current oil price likely includes a "war premium" based on fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure. If the naval threat is removed and shipping normalizes, that premium evaporates immediately. SHORT oil exposure (via USO) to capture the downside mean reversion as geopolitical fear subsides. Escalation involving ground troops or hidden Iranian missile capabilities that successfully close the Strait for a prolonged period.
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SHORT
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
Yardeni asks, "Why not go with the flow and go into Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples. Those have all done well." Given the uncertainty of how the AI trade plays out ("there's a lot we don't know"), investors should seek safety in sectors that are currently performing well and offer defensive or inflation-hedging characteristics. LONG. A recession could hurt cyclical sectors like Energy and Materials; Staples may be sensitive to rates.
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LONG
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund
He notes Financials have been "beaten down of late because of the AI fears" but cites Jamie Dimon (JPM) expecting to spend $20 billion on tech/AI. The market fears AI will disrupt banks, but Yardeni argues AI is a tool that large incumbents will use to become "more productive." Therefore, the sell-off is an opportunity to buy the beneficiaries of AI adoption in the financial sector. LONG. Regulatory hurdles or slower-than-expected AI integration in legacy banking systems.
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LONG
Consumer Staples Select SPDR
Yardeni asks, "Why not go with the flow and go into Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples. Those have all done well." Given the uncertainty of how the AI trade plays out ("there's a lot we don't know"), investors should seek safety in sectors that are currently performing well and offer defensive or inflation-hedging characteristics. LONG. A recession could hurt cyclical sectors like Energy and Materials; Staples may be sensitive to rates.
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LONG
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF
Alongside underweighting US Tech, Yardeni recommended "going global instead of staying home" and the host notes his specific calls on "Korea." This is the other side of the Mag-7 rotation trade. As US tech valuations become stretched and competitive, capital flows should move to overseas markets which offer better value and are in earlier stages of their cycle. LONG. Global economic slowdown or strong US dollar headwinds.
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LONG
Materials Select Sector SPDR
Yardeni asks, "Why not go with the flow and go into Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples. Those have all done well." Given the uncertainty of how the AI trade plays out ("there's a lot we don't know"), investors should seek safety in sectors that are currently performing well and offer defensive or inflation-hedging characteristics. LONG. A recession could hurt cyclical sectors like Energy and Materials; Staples may be sensitive to rates.
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LONG
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
He notes Financials have been "beaten down of late because of the AI fears" but cites Jamie Dimon (JPM) expecting to spend $20 billion on tech/AI. The market fears AI will disrupt banks, but Yardeni argues AI is a tool that large incumbents will use to become "more productive." Therefore, the sell-off is an opportunity to buy the beneficiaries of AI adoption in the financial sector. LONG. Regulatory hurdles or slower-than-expected AI integration in legacy banking systems.
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LONG
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
"We have seen this beginnings of a great rotation into foreign markets." As investors pull money from expensive US tech concentration, they are seeking value in under-owned global markets. Capital flow is shifting structurally toward international assets as part of a broader rebalancing. A strong US dollar or global recession could dampen returns in foreign equities.
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LONG
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
Yardeni observes a "great rotation into sectors of the S&P 500 that certainly lagged behind during the rally." The fear was that if Mag 7 fell, the whole market would crash. Yardeni notes "That's not happening." Instead, the "other 493" stocks are catching a bid, making the Equal Weight index (RSP) or value sectors the beneficiaries of tech outflows. Long the "rest" of the market as valuation spreads compress between Big Tech and everything else. If the economy slows significantly, cyclical sectors (often the laggards) would suffer regardless of rotation.
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LONG
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Yardeni observes that despite the stock market rising, bond yields are holding steady (around 4.2%) and Gold is moving higher toward $3,000+. Investors are taking profits from the tech/AI run-up and "rebalancing" into defensive assets (Gold and Bonds) to find "AI Immunity." LONG. The "Galloping Horse" economy (stimulus + rate cuts) combined with a desire for non-AI correlated assets favors hard assets and sovereign debt. A resurgence in inflation could hurt nominal bond returns; Gold is technically overbought in the short term.
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LONG
Bitcoin
Yardeni observes that "Happy days are here again" and investors are buying everything, specifically highlighting Gold and Bitcoin alongside stocks. The combination of massive corporate spending (stimulus) and large government tax refund checks is creating a liquidity-rich environment. This money is flowing into alternative assets, driving prices up across the board. Both asset classes are performing "extremely well" in the current environment. Not explicitly mentioned, but generally tied to liquidity drying up or a shift in economic sentiment.
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LONG
Best and worst calls
Best calls
XLE LONG
+12.6%
Yardeni asks, "Why not go with the flow and go into Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples. Those have all done well." Give...
Feb 26
QQQ LONG
+9.4%
Recommended underweighting the Magnificent 7 in early December when they traded at a 31x P/E multiple. Has now moved bac...
Mar 18
GOLD LONG
+4.6%
Yardeni observes that "Happy days are here again" and investors are buying everything, specifically highlighting Gold an...
Feb 06
Worst calls
USO SHORT
-42.3%
Yardeni states, "If this thing gets resolved fairly rapidly, as I expect, the straits will be open and the price of oil ...
Mar 02
EWY LONG
-22.6%
Alongside underweighting US Tech, Yardeni recommended "going global instead of staying home" and the host notes his spec...
Feb 26
EFA LONG
-10.9%
"We have seen this beginnings of a great rotation into foreign markets." As investors pull money from expensive US tech ...
Feb 26
Emerging markets offer growth from middle-class demand.
Emerging markets have opportunities due to large and growing middle classes that drive domestic consumer demand, healthcare demand, and industrial development, moving beyond commodity dependence.
President, Yardeni Research
AI stocks will continue to lead and profit.
AI stocks corrected and are leading the market again; AI is here to stay, with big companies likely to be survivors and generate profits, potentially acquiring smaller rebranded companies.
President, Yardeni Research
Health care in EMs has growth potential.
Health care sector in emerging markets, particularly in China, has strong growth potential due to aging populations and increasing domestic demand for medical services and drugs.
President, Yardeni Research
A.I. stocks will continue to lead.
A.I. is a lasting technological trend, and large companies involved in A.I., such as the Magnificent Seven, are likely to be survivors and profit leaders, making A.I. stocks attractive.
President, Yardeni Research
Bullish on global equities, especially Korea and Taiwan.
He is staying with the 'go global' trade, noting that markets like South Korea and Taiwan have had V-shaped recoveries and that global equities are back in fashion, expecting continued outperformance.
President, Yardeni Research
US oil exports to rise, boosting oil industry.
Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, tankers that used to go to the Arabian Gulf are now coming to the United States for oil, causing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to jump above Brent crude. This trend is expected to lead to a substantial increase in U.S. oil exports over the next year or so, which would be a positive for the U.S. oil industry.
President, Yardeni Research
States the tech comeback "absolutely" has legs and that tech got "relatively cheap again." Cites the P/E multiple falling from ~31 to 25, even hitting 22. The significant de-rating in valuation (P/E compression) after his prior call to underweight the sector (on Dec 7) has created a more attractive entry point. The valuation reset provides a foundation for renewed outperformance in the technology sector. A broader market sell-off that leads to further multiple compression beyond recent lows.
XLK
CNBC
Apr 02, 20:03
President, Yardeni Research
Emerging markets excluding China offer lower valuations and contain growing middle classes with strong aspirations for higher living standards. These demographic and valuation dynamics provide a more favorable growth and return profile compared to the US and China. Long emerging markets ex-China as a core component of a global diversification and value-seeking strategy. Geopolitical events or a materially stronger US dollar could pressure emerging market currencies and asset prices.
EMXC
Wealthion
Mar 25, 20:00
President, Yardeni Research
Recommended underweighting the Magnificent 7 in early December when they traded at a 31x P/E multiple. Has now moved back to a market weight position as the multiple has fallen to 25x. The significant derating (from 31x to 25x) makes these "phenomenal growth companies" more attractive on a valuation basis within the context of his resilient earnings and economic outlook. The valuation reset presents a more favorable entry point for these core growth leaders. A recession that leads to both lower earnings (E) and a lower valuation multiple (P/E), resulting in a bear market.
QQQ
Wealthion
Mar 18, 21:00
President, Yardeni Research
"Have some gold in your portfolio." Despite his bullishness on stocks and dismissal of the war threat, he advocates for gold as a permanent diversifier, likely due to the "sticky inflation" he mentioned regarding the PPI (Producer Price Index). LONG gold as a portfolio hedge. Real interest rates rising significantly, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
GLD
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 02, 21:40
President, Yardeni Research
"Geopolitical crises present buying opportunities... stay invested in the stock market." He adds that the market is looking forward to "increased stability in the Middle East" and potentially more Abraham Accords. The market has already "bought the dip." The thesis is that the conflict is a short-term noise event, not a 1970s-style structural shock. Therefore, broad equity exposure captures the relief rally as stability returns. LONG broad equities. A wider regional war drawing in major superpowers, causing a sustained market sell-off.
VTI
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 02, 21:40
President, Yardeni Research
Yardeni states, "If this thing gets resolved fairly rapidly, as I expect, the straits will be open and the price of oil will come down rather rapidly." He notes the Iranian Navy is "already sunk." The current oil price likely includes a "war premium" based on fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure. If the naval threat is removed and shipping normalizes, that premium evaporates immediately. SHORT oil exposure (via USO) to capture the downside mean reversion as geopolitical fear subsides. Escalation involving ground troops or hidden Iranian missile capabilities that successfully close the Strait for a prolonged period.
USO
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 02, 21:40
President, Yardeni Research
Yardeni asks, "Why not go with the flow and go into Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples. Those have all done well." Given the uncertainty of how the AI trade plays out ("there's a lot we don't know"), investors should seek safety in sectors that are currently performing well and offer defensive or inflation-hedging characteristics. LONG. A recession could hurt cyclical sectors like Energy and Materials; Staples may be sensitive to rates.
President, Yardeni Research
Alongside underweighting US Tech, Yardeni recommended "going global instead of staying home" and the host notes his specific calls on "Korea." This is the other side of the Mag-7 rotation trade. As US tech valuations become stretched and competitive, capital flows should move to overseas markets which offer better value and are in earlier stages of their cycle. LONG. Global economic slowdown or strong US dollar headwinds.
EWY
CNBC
Feb 26, 22:08
President, Yardeni Research