The Fed is hawkish on current inflation but long-end bond yields have not moved dramatically, flattening the curve. If oil trends lower, inflation will moderate, and the Fed will change posture. Duration looks attractive, especially for those concerned about equity volatility.
China's oil demand has peaked and is in structural decline, driven by EV adoption, shifting plastics production, and prior oversupply. Data explains the entire 4.6 million barrel/day drop without needing secret inventories, implying a sustained bearish outlook for oil.