ECB rate hikes remain on the table because oil prices can stay higher and there is no return to pre-war levels; product prices have already diverged from crude, feeding second-round inflation effects. The ECB's hawkish tone persists and the appetite to deliver further tightening is still strong.
The latest US jobs report was below expectations but still consistent with a declining unemployment rate, keeping the Fed on track to re-engage with rate hikes. The breakeven pace for payrolls is very low, so even soft prints leave the labour market tight enough to require further tightening.