Calls
8
#345
Alpha Score 67.1
Bill Smead
Founder, CIO, Smead Capital Management
Win Rate
62.5%
return
+2.8%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jun 08
$37.64
-7.6%
Oil companies are very undervalued at $90 oil. Free cash flow generation is outstanding – they can make a year's worth of money in 90 days. Companies are buying back stock and the industry is due for consolidation. The market is pricing oil at $70, but demand is likely to rise with population growth and supply constraints.
Oil & Gas
Long
Jun 08
$28.97
-3.1%
Oil companies are very undervalued at $90 oil. Free cash flow generation is outstanding – they can make a year's worth of money in 90 days. Companies are buying back stock and the industry is due for consolidation. The market is pricing oil at $70, but demand is likely to rise with population growth and supply constraints.
Oil & Gas
Long
Jun 08
$144.28
+2.3%
Homebuilders are undervalued because new home construction relative to population is at 60-year lows while demand from large demographic cohorts is strong. Wealthy older investors are likely to buy homes for rental or to help children with down payments. Buffett's purchase of Taylor Morrison validates the thesis. We own LGI Homes, D.R. Horton, and NVR.
Homebuilders
Long
Jun 08
$51.53
+10.6%
We trimmed big financials exposed to investment markets and emphasized regional banks that are basic deposit-and-loan institutions. These banks are less susceptible to a stock market correction and will benefit from a shakeout in the financial advisor industry. Fifth Third and Western Alliance are examples.
Banks
Long
Jun 08
$50.59
+19.3%
Homebuilders are undervalued because new home construction relative to population is at 60-year lows while demand from large demographic cohorts is strong. Wealthy older investors are likely to buy homes for rental or to help children with down payments. Buffett's purchase of Taylor Morrison validates the thesis. We own LGI Homes, D.R. Horton, and NVR.
Homebuilders
Long
Jun 08
$6191.11
+1.9%
Homebuilders are undervalued because new home construction relative to population is at 60-year lows while demand from large demographic cohorts is strong. Wealthy older investors are likely to buy homes for rental or to help children with down payments. Buffett's purchase of Taylor Morrison validates the thesis. We own LGI Homes, D.R. Horton, and NVR.
Homebuilders
Long
Jun 08
$57.41
-4.3%
Oil companies are very undervalued at $90 oil. Free cash flow generation is outstanding – they can make a year's worth of money in 90 days. Companies are buying back stock and the industry is due for consolidation. The market is pricing oil at $70, but demand is likely to rise with population growth and supply constraints.
Oil & Gas
Long
Jun 08
$80.00
+3.4%
We trimmed big financials exposed to investment markets and emphasized regional banks that are basic deposit-and-loan institutions. These banks are less susceptible to a stock market correction and will benefit from a shakeout in the financial advisor industry. Fifth Third and Western Alliance are examples.
Banks
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Bill Smead has 8 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 8 tickers since June 2026. Ranked #345 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: OXY, DHI, NVR.
