Antonio Garza 2.1 9 ideas

"Business... has generally navigated around the security concerns pretty well... Cartels have not historically tried to disrupt movement so much as just the day to day... corruption." + "It suggests a level of commitment from this administration that is the most significant directionally that we have seen in almost a decade." While headlines are scary (blockades), the structural "nearshoring" thesis remains intact. Manufacturing supply chains are hardened against this specific type of risk. Furthermore, the Sheinbaum administration's pivot to "real-time" intel sharing with the US is a long-term bullish signal for Mexican stability and the Peso, making any panic-selling a buying opportunity for Mexican assets. LONG Mexican manufacturing and broad equity exposure (EWW) as the security cooperation improves the long-term risk premium. If the "succession battle" spills over into direct attacks on infrastructure or ports (specifically the western port mentioned), trade flows could actually stop.

"I would encourage people, certainly as we go into the month of March and April, where it's, you know, Spring Break time for Americans to be looking at those travel advisories and perhaps rethinking some of their plans." The "succession battle" creates a multi-month period of instability coinciding exactly with peak Spring Break travel. If Americans heed advisories and cancel trips, airlines with heavy Mexico routes and hotel chains with significant resort exposure will see Q1/Q2 revenue hits. AVOID or SHORT travel stocks with high Mexico exposure during the succession conflict window. The violence could be contained faster than expected, or travelers may ignore advisories (desensitization to cartel news).