Katie Greifeld 3.4 62 ideas
Anchor, Bloomberg
After 1 day
44%winrate
+0.8% avg
19W / 24L · 43/46 ideas
After 1 week
49%winrate
+0.2% avg
21W / 22L · 43/46 ideas
After 1 month
32%winrate
-1.8% avg
6W / 13L · 19/46 ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
Stock
51 ideas
-1.0%
ETF
8 ideas
-3.2%
Crypto
1 ideas
private_company
1 ideas
sector
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
BA
2 ideas
50% W
+1.2%
NVDA
2 ideas
—
—
PLTR
2 ideas
—
—
AMD
2 ideas
—
—
SPY
1 ideas
0% W
-0.1%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
OWL SHORT
+21.5%
"Blue Owl Capital shares taking a hit after the company decided to restrict withdrawals from one of its private credit f...
Feb 19
CART LONG
+16.6%
Instacart (CART) beat on Gross Transaction Value and Orders. Crucially, the Q1 Adjusted EBITDA forecast beat estimates. ...
Feb 12
RIVN LONG
+9.5%
Rivian revenue beat estimates ($1.29B vs $1.2B range). Despite mixed delivery guidance, the stock surged ~10% in after-h...
Feb 12
Worst calls
MRNA LONG
-15.6%
Moderna (MRNA) shares surged after settling litigation for a significantly lower amount than feared (avoiding a massive ...
Mar 04
GE LONG
-15.1%
Morgan Stanley initiated General Electric (GE) with an "Overweight" rating and a $425 price target (stock trading ~343)....
Feb 20
DE LONG
-14.0%
"Gain of just shy of 12%... did boost its annual profit outlook, anticipating a long awaited upturn in the agriculture e...
Feb 19
Bullish on Equinix due to data center demand.
Investors want to buy more stocks with exposure to data centers, as evidenced by Equinix's strong performance (up 34% year to date), indicating high demand and winning investments in this sector.
Anchor, Bloomberg
CoreWeave shares finished up >10% after Anthropic agreed to a multi-year deal to tap its data center capacity for AI services. The deal directly boosts CoreWeave's revenue and cements its position as a key infrastructure provider for leading AI companies, having now secured OpenAI, Google, and Meta as customers. LONG due to a concrete, material commercial win that validates its business model and expands its growth trajectory in the high-demand AI infrastructure space. Execution risk in scaling data center capacity to meet multi-year demand commitments.
CWVE
Bloomberg Markets
Apr 10, 20:23
Anchor, Bloomberg
Organon shares climbed ~28% after a report that Sun Pharmaceutical is set to make a $12B offer, following a prior 8% gain on related speculation. Sun called the report "speculative." The stock's extreme reaction to successive days of M&A speculation indicates the market assigns a high probability to a deal, with reports claiming detailed due diligence has been completed. WATCH due to high, event-driven volatility centered on a potential takeover, where the outcome is binary and dependent on a formal offer materializing. The deal fails to materialize, causing the speculative premium to collapse.
OGN
Bloomberg Markets
Apr 10, 20:23
Anchor, Bloomberg
Commvault Systems is exploring a sale after receiving takeover interest from multiple parties, causing its shares to rise more than 10%. A formal sales process initiated after unsolicited interest typically indicates a high likelihood of a transaction occurring, creating an arbitrage opportunity. LONG based on the explicit news of a potential sale, which provides a clear catalyst for share price appreciation as the process unfolds. The sales process fails to result in a transaction or the offered price disappoints.
CVLT
Bloomberg Markets
Apr 10, 20:23
Anchor, Bloomberg
Intel agreed to a $14.2B plant buyback, expected to add to EPS and financed with cash and debt, with D.A. Davidson noting it bodes well for the turnaround story. The move reflects growing confidence in Intel's business and its potential role in AI infrastructure spending, suggesting a positive outlook. LONG due to reinforced turnaround narrative and alignment with AI spending boom. Turnaround execution risks or increased debt burden.
INTC
Bloomberg Markets
Apr 01, 20:20
Anchor, Bloomberg
Nike forecasts revenue decline of 2-4% for the current quarter, citing elevated inventories, weakness in Greater China, and a turnaround taking longer than expected. Ongoing challenges and share price at decade lows indicate persistent headwinds and low morale, making near-term recovery unlikely. AVOID due to poor fundamental outlook and extended turnaround timeline. Successful inventory management or demand rebound in key regions.
NKE
Bloomberg Markets
Apr 01, 20:20
Anchor, Bloomberg
Evercore ISI note cited stating AI-driven data demand remains fundamentally robust, providing a durable tailwind for the HDD market. This structural demand from AI training to inference transition benefits hard disk drive manufacturers like Western Digital and Seagate Technology. LONG due to exposure to a sustained fundamental tailwind from AI data growth. Slowdown in AI demand or technological shifts away from HDDs.
Anchor, Bloomberg
GENERAC fell nearly 2% (after being down over 6%) following its Investor Day, where investors were disappointed by the absence of a announced hyperscale agreement. While the company gave guidance and discussed backlog growth, the lack of a concrete partnership with a hyperscaler was a key negative takeaway. The market's negative reaction to unmet expectations suggests the stock lacks a near-term catalyst and may be prone to disappointment. The company could announce a hyperscale partnership later, providing a positive catalyst.
GNRC
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 25, 20:26
Anchor, Bloomberg
Valero fell ~3%, pressured by broader energy sector weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty and an idiosyncratic refinery fire. The company is dealing with operational disruption (fire at Port Arthur refinery) amid a volatile commodity price environment driven by ceasefire hopes/fears. The combination of macro headwinds and company-specific operational issues presents unattractive near-term risk. A sustained rally in oil prices or a swift resolution of the refinery outage could reverse the pressure.
VLO
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 25, 20:26
Anchor, Bloomberg
On Holdings fell more than 11% after the CEO announced he would step down, to be replaced by co-CEOs (the company's co-founders) in May. Analysts cited the new co-CEO structure as potentially adding complexity to the company's decision-making process. The significant sell-off reflects a market view that the leadership change introduces execution risk and governance uncertainty. The transition could be smooth, and the co-founders may successfully execute the stated goal of preserving "entrepreneurial speed."
ONON
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 25, 20:26
Anchor, Bloomberg
ARM Holdings soared 16% after announcing it will begin selling its own chips (AGI CPU), with Meta as its first major customer. The company expects the new chip business to generate $15 billion in annual revenue within five years, signaling a significant new growth vector. The market reaction and substantial revenue target indicate strong bullish conviction in the strategic shift. Execution risk in ramping up a new hardware business and competition in the chip design space.
ARM
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 25, 20:26
Anchor, Bloomberg
EchoStar, Rocket Lab, and AST Space Mobile rallied 7.5% to 10.5% on a report that SpaceX is considering an IPO with a potential ~$75 billion valuation. The news of a landmark space IPO is generating investor enthusiasm and positive sentiment spillover into related public companies. The group move indicates a bullish read-across effect, where anticipation of a major liquidity event boosts valuations in the sector. The SpaceX IPO is not confirmed, and these moves are based on speculation; fundamentals of the individual companies may not have changed.
Anchor, Bloomberg
Micron shares fell 4.4%, continuing a decline after the company reported capital expenditure for the year that was higher than analysts expected. Higher CapEx raises concerns about near-term profitability, free cash flow, and return on investment in a cyclical industry. The stock's persistent drop (-13.5% from recent highs) shows investor disappointment and a reassessment of earnings prospects. The increased spending could lead to greater market share or production efficiency longer-term.
MU
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 23, 20:23
Anchor, Bloomberg