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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
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Median
-
Top 10%
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Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
19 eval.
-0.6%
L -0.6%
S -
Win rate
47%
30 days
19 eval.
+1.3%
L +1.3%
S -
Win rate
32%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Energy
$197.10
-
The threat of targeting energy infrastructure in Iran does remain on the table saying, quote, one simple word and Karg Island pipelines will be gone in reference to The US going after military targets in Iran's top oil export hub. Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran's crude exports. A direct military strike on this infrastructure would instantly remove millions of barrels of oil from the daily global supply. This massive supply shock will drive up global crude prices, directly benefiting Western energy producers and oil majors who are insulated from Middle East geopolitical risks and can sell their production at a premium. LONG. A direct kinetic threat to major global oil infrastructure creates an immediate bullish catalyst for unexposed Western energy equities. The conflict de-escalates quickly, or the US administration successfully floods the market using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to artificially suppress prices for consumers.
Mar 16
Long
Energy
$57.61
-
The threat of targeting energy infrastructure in Iran does remain on the table saying, quote, one simple word and Karg Island pipelines will be gone in reference to The US going after military targets in Iran's top oil export hub. Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran's crude exports. A direct military strike on this infrastructure would instantly remove millions of barrels of oil from the daily global supply. This massive supply shock will drive up global crude prices, directly benefiting Western energy producers and oil majors who are insulated from Middle East geopolitical risks and can sell their production at a premium. LONG. A direct kinetic threat to major global oil infrastructure creates an immediate bullish catalyst for unexposed Western energy equities. The conflict de-escalates quickly, or the US administration successfully floods the market using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to artificially suppress prices for consumers.
Mar 16
Long
NatSec
$416.12
-
The UK is looking at some other potential options to put on the table in talks with The US, including deploying autonomous drone, mine hunting drones to go after any potential mines that may be left in the street. Traditional naval escorts are facing political pushback from NATO allies who view the alliance strictly as defensive and are wary of escalation. To bridge this gap, militaries will increasingly rely on unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) and autonomous maritime drones for mine countermeasures and reconnaissance. Defense contractors specializing in maritime drones and autonomous systems will see accelerated procurement as nations seek to project power without risking human sailors. LONG. Political hesitance to risk human lives in contested waterways directly accelerates the adoption, funding, and deployment of autonomous naval defense technologies. Allied nations ultimately refuse to fund these deployments, or the Strait is cleared quickly via diplomatic channels without the need for extended autonomous drone contracts.
Mar 16
Long
NatSec
$89.10
-
The UK is looking at some other potential options to put on the table in talks with The US, including deploying autonomous drone, mine hunting drones to go after any potential mines that may be left in the street. Traditional naval escorts are facing political pushback from NATO allies who view the alliance strictly as defensive and are wary of escalation. To bridge this gap, militaries will increasingly rely on unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) and autonomous maritime drones for mine countermeasures and reconnaissance. Defense contractors specializing in maritime drones and autonomous systems will see accelerated procurement as nations seek to project power without risking human sailors. LONG. Political hesitance to risk human lives in contested waterways directly accelerates the adoption, funding, and deployment of autonomous naval defense technologies. Allied nations ultimately refuse to fund these deployments, or the Strait is cleared quickly via diplomatic channels without the need for extended autonomous drone contracts.
Mar 16
Long
NatSec
$356.06
-
Later today we could see one of the largest bombardments of the military campaign... dismantling Iran's ballistic missile program and the industrial base, destroying Iran's navy. A massive, sustained bombardment campaign requires significant expenditure of precision-guided munitions, cruise missiles, and air defense interceptors. The US military will need to rapidly replenish these depleted stockpiles, directly translating into new, high-volume government contracts for the prime defense contractors that manufacture these weapons systems. LONG major US defense prime contractors (LMT, RTX, GD) as they secure replenishment contracts for expended munitions and naval warfare assets. The conflict ends abruptly as President Trump suggested, limiting the total volume of munitions expended and capping the upside of subsequent replenishment orders.
Mar 10
Long
Energy
$76.48
-
The IRGC is maintaining that they will continue to block oil exports... disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz do continue. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global maritime chokepoint. Blockades and military actions force oil tankers to either pay massive insurance risk premiums or reroute entirely around the Cape of Good Hope. Rerouting extends voyage times significantly, which ties up vessel capacity, severely tightens global tanker supply, and drives up daily charter rates for tanker operators. LONG crude and product tanker equities (FRO, STNG, NAT) to capitalize on surging freight rates caused by the geopolitical chokepoint disruption. The US military successfully deploys naval escorts that secure the waterway, normalizing shipping routes, reducing voyage times, and crushing freight rates.
Mar 10
Long
Energy
$5.50
-
The IRGC is maintaining that they will continue to block oil exports... disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz do continue. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global maritime chokepoint. Blockades and military actions force oil tankers to either pay massive insurance risk premiums or reroute entirely around the Cape of Good Hope. Rerouting extends voyage times significantly, which ties up vessel capacity, severely tightens global tanker supply, and drives up daily charter rates for tanker operators. LONG crude and product tanker equities (FRO, STNG, NAT) to capitalize on surging freight rates caused by the geopolitical chokepoint disruption. The US military successfully deploys naval escorts that secure the waterway, normalizing shipping routes, reducing voyage times, and crushing freight rates.
Mar 10
Long
NatSec
$231.11
-
Breaking news that Boeing is closing in on a "500 aircraft order for 737 MAX jets" to be unveiled when President Trump travels to Beijing. This is a massive liquidity injection and backlog booster for Boeing. It also suggests political cover from the Trump administration, insulating Boeing from trade war risks with China. Long Boeing. The sheer volume of the order (500 jets) acts as a hard floor for the stock price and signals a resumption of Chinese deliveries. The deal falls through or is blocked by geopolitical escalation; continued quality control issues at Boeing.
Mar 06
Long
NatSec
$740.01
-
The correspondent notes that while shorter-range weapons are available, there are "big questions about a dwindling stockpile" of other munitions after hitting 2,000+ targets. A "dwindling stockpile" in the middle of a sustained campaign (forecasted to last 3-8 more weeks) necessitates immediate and massive government contracts to replenish inventory. This directly benefits prime defense contractors responsible for missile systems and munitions. LONG defense primes as replenishment orders become a certainty to sustain the war effort. A sudden diplomatic resolution or ceasefire would compress the valuation premium currently built into defense stocks.
Mar 05
Long
Other
$34.92
-
"Additional vessels have been attacked in the Persian Gulf." When commercial vessels are attacked in key waterways, insurance premiums skyrocket and shipping capacity tightens. Tanker companies can charge significantly higher freight rates (Worldscale) to transport oil through or around high-risk zones. LONG oil tanker equities as freight rates likely surge in response to the physical danger in the Gulf. A total closure of the Strait of Hormuz would halt volume entirely, hurting shipping companies rather than helping them.
Mar 05
Long
Other
$73.20
-
"Additional vessels have been attacked in the Persian Gulf." When commercial vessels are attacked in key waterways, insurance premiums skyrocket and shipping capacity tightens. Tanker companies can charge significantly higher freight rates (Worldscale) to transport oil through or around high-risk zones. LONG oil tanker equities as freight rates likely surge in response to the physical danger in the Gulf. A total closure of the Strait of Hormuz would halt volume entirely, hurting shipping companies rather than helping them.
Mar 05
Long
Energy
$90.20
-
Trump says it is "too late" for talks; Israel is launching a "ninth wave" of attacks; the U.S. goal is to "dismantle Iran's programs." The removal of a diplomatic offramp significantly increases the risk of asymmetric retaliation by Iran, specifically targeting energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz. While Qatar/UAE are lobbying for a short war, the "dismantle" rhetoric suggests a prolonged disruption to the region's stability, adding a war premium to crude. Long Oil (USO) and Energy Equities (XLE) as a hedge against supply chain disruption. OPEC+ increasing supply to stabilize prices or a swift resolution to the conflict.
Mar 03
Long
NatSec
$641.63
-
The US has deployed F-22 fighter jets and refueling planes to the Middle East, a "first time" move of this magnitude. Trump states he will "never hesitate to confront threats." The physical movement of high-end military assets indicates active engagement. Furthermore, the Ukraine conflict is entering its fifth year with intensifying bombardment, ensuring sustained demand for munitions and defense platforms. LONG Defense Primes as geopolitical friction remains the dominant global theme. Sudden diplomatic breakthroughs in both Iran and Ukraine (low probability according to guests).
Feb 26
Long
NatSec
$197.63
-
The US has deployed F-22 fighter jets and refueling planes to the Middle East, a "first time" move of this magnitude. Trump states he will "never hesitate to confront threats." The physical movement of high-end military assets indicates active engagement. Furthermore, the Ukraine conflict is entering its fifth year with intensifying bombardment, ensuring sustained demand for munitions and defense platforms. LONG Defense Primes as geopolitical friction remains the dominant global theme. Sudden diplomatic breakthroughs in both Iran and Ukraine (low probability according to guests).
Feb 26
Long
Consumer
$10.16
-
Reporting indicated "Paramount CEO David Ellison will be in attendance as the company got some good news behind its bid when it comes to Warner Brothers." The presence of the CEO at the SOTU combined with "good news" regarding a bid implies regulatory hurdles for a merger/acquisition may be clearing or a deal is imminent. LONG. M&A arbitrage/speculation. Deal falls through or regulatory blocking (FTC/DOJ).
Feb 25
Long
Consumer
$28.90
-
Reporting indicated "Paramount CEO David Ellison will be in attendance as the company got some good news behind its bid when it comes to Warner Brothers." The presence of the CEO at the SOTU combined with "good news" regarding a bid implies regulatory hurdles for a merger/acquisition may be clearing or a deal is imminent. LONG. M&A arbitrage/speculation. Deal falls through or regulatory blocking (FTC/DOJ).
Feb 25
Long
Energy
$54.78
-
Japan is investing $36 Billion in US energy projects, including a natural gas plant in Ohio and oil export facilities in the Gulf. This is a direct injection of capital into US energy infrastructure. It validates the "Energy Security" theme and guarantees demand for US LNG and fossil fuels. LONG. US Energy infrastructure is a beneficiary of geopolitical alignment with Japan. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approvals.
Feb 18
Long
Energy
$223.72
-
Japan is investing $36 Billion in US energy projects, including a natural gas plant in Ohio and oil export facilities in the Gulf. This is a direct injection of capital into US energy infrastructure. It validates the "Energy Security" theme and guarantees demand for US LNG and fossil fuels. LONG. US Energy infrastructure is a beneficiary of geopolitical alignment with Japan. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approvals.
Feb 18
Long
NatSec
$230.95
-
President Trump floated the idea of sending a "second armada" (aircraft carrier group) to the Middle East. Netanyahu is presenting intelligence on Iran's ballistic missile program, and Lissner notes that while a strike isn't imminent *today*, significant military activity is expected once that second carrier group arrives. "Second Armada" = Logistics, hardware, and munitions expenditure. The explicit mention of Iran's ballistic missile program suggests future kinetic action or enhanced defense spending on interceptors (Iron Dome/Arrow equivalents). This flow of military assets directly benefits defense prime contractors. LONG. Geopolitical risk premiums are being repriced higher with the movement of heavy naval assets. Diplomatic breakthrough (low probability given the rhetoric) or de-escalation.
Feb 11
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