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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
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Median
-
Top 10%
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Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
1 eval.
-11.7%
L -
S -11.7%
Win rate
0%
30 days
1 eval.
-19.4%
L -
S -19.4%
Win rate
0%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Short
Energy
$106.36
-
In terms of the oil prices, we've seen a temporary spike. I don't think it will be extended. Over the long term, this will put downward pressure on oil prices. Having Iran led by a government that is not a terrorist organization... will result in greater global supply. The current geopolitical risk premium in oil is based on fears of supply disruption. If the US successfully forces a regime change in Iran without a protracted war, the risk premium will evaporate. Furthermore, a normalized, non-sanctioned Iran would add significant crude supply to the global market, driving prices down. SHORT oil via USO as the conflict nears a resolution and new Iranian supply threatens to flood the market. The conflict escalates, Iran successfully mines the Strait of Hormuz, or the regime change fails, leading to a protracted war and sustained supply disruptions.
Mar 10
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