, [Morgan Stanley](https://www.morganstanley.com/profiles/mike-wilson-chief-investment-officer))
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
12 eval.
+0.8%
L +0.8%
S -
Win rate
92%
30 days
11 eval.
-4.5%
L -4.5%
S -
Win rate
18%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Other
$47.44
-
Speaker states he was "much more bullish on the metals and some of the materials than we were on energy" and currently thinks "the better trade now" is to fade energy and go back to materials/metals. Metals and materials are leveraged to global industrial recovery and infrastructure capex (e.g., Big Beautiful Bill), without the geopolitical supply shock dynamics currently plaguing oil. Long non-energy minerals (metals, materials) as a preferred cyclical exposure within commodities. A global recession halting the industrial recovery and commodity demand.
Mar 20
Long
Other
$413.38
-
Speaker advocates for a portfolio shift from traditional 60/40 to a 60/20/20 model, with the 20% alternatives allocation including gold as a defensive asset. In a fiscal-dominant, inflationary regime, gold protects against currency debasement and serves as a hedge when the defensive function of long-duration bonds is compromised. Long gold as a strategic, non-yielding asset for portfolio diversification and inflation hedging. A return to a Volcker-like Fed prioritizing inflation fighting above all else, driving real rates sharply higher.
Mar 20
Long
AI/Semi
$38.36
-
Wilson argues it is "premature to kind of throw a cold blanket on the AI cycle" and explicitly states, "It's just getting going." The market is currently worried about AI CapEx ROI and labor disruption, causing volatility. Wilson identifies this as a temporary "testing period" rather than a structural end to the trend. If the cycle is "just getting going," current dips represent entry points before the next leg up. LONG AI and Tech exposure, looking past short-term noise. Disappointing earnings from hyperscalers or regulatory crackdowns on AI development.
Feb 18
Long
AI/Semi
$140.91
-
Wilson argues it is "premature to kind of throw a cold blanket on the AI cycle" and explicitly states, "It's just getting going." The market is currently worried about AI CapEx ROI and labor disruption, causing volatility. Wilson identifies this as a temporary "testing period" rather than a structural end to the trend. If the cycle is "just getting going," current dips represent entry points before the next leg up. LONG AI and Tech exposure, looking past short-term noise. Disappointing earnings from hyperscalers or regulatory crackdowns on AI development.
Feb 18
Long
Macro
$686.29
-
Wilson maintains a "7000 dollars price target for the S&P by the end of this year." He notes the market may struggle for "another month or two" due to the Fed Chair nomination process (Kevin Warsh) but expects a "really good second half." The short-term friction is political/administrative (Fed confirmation testing), not fundamental. Once the uncertainty of the Fed transition resolves, the "new economic cycle" will drive the index to new highs (7000). LONG S&P 500, utilizing any short-term volatility during the Fed Chair confirmation hearings as a buying opportunity. The new Fed Chair (Warsh) signals a hawkish policy shift that compresses multiples, or the "testing period" results in a deeper correction than anticipated.
Feb 18
Long
Fintech
$52.59
-
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Feb 18
Long
Other
$175.04
-
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Feb 18
Long
Consumer
$117.02
-
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Feb 18
Long
Macro
$203.57
-
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Feb 18
Long
Macro
$263.99
-
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Feb 18
Long
Macro
$71.67
-
Wilson states the US is in a "new earnings and economic cycle" following the end of a rolling recession. Crucially, the median stock is now seeing double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, a shift from when growth was concentrated solely in Big Tech. When earnings growth broadens beyond the "Mag 7," valuation spreads typically narrow. This favors the "Average Stock" (Equal Weight S&P 500) and cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials) over the heavy-weight tech plays that have dominated recent years. LONG the "Broadening Trade" via Equal Weight ETFs and cyclical sectors. A deterioration in earnings revisions or an exogenous shock (e.g., aggressive Fed hiking).
Feb 18
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