Best trades
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
25 eval.
+5.2%
L +5.2%
S -
Win rate
56%
30 days
17 eval.
+29.7%
L +29.7%
S -
Win rate
94%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
NatSec
$5.43
-
Buy BB for its embedded QNX OS dominance in automotive and defense, with royalty model and $950M backlog driving compounding revenue growth.
May 02
Long
AI/Semi
$1.86
-
Long BZAI based on strong management team composed of executives from top semiconductor and telecom companies, suggesting potential competitive edge.
Apr 29
Long
NatSec
$38.28
-
Long AVEX due to severe relative undervaluation, boasting 9x the revenue of peers at a lower market cap and a highly visible $503M funded backlog.
Apr 20
Long
AI/Semi
$43.88
-
Long European photonics and semicap companies due to their dominant market share and specialized technology ownership in MOCVD tools, glass substrates for CPO, and in-situ metrology, which are critical for silicon photonics foundries.
Apr 20
Long
Photonics
$22.30
-
Long European photonics and semicap companies due to their dominant market share and specialized technology ownership in MOCVD tools, glass substrates for CPO, and in-situ metrology, which are critical for silicon photonics foundries.
Apr 20
Long
Energy
$100.00
-
Long European photonics and semicap companies due to their dominant market share and specialized technology ownership in MOCVD tools, glass substrates for CPO, and in-situ metrology, which are critical for silicon photonics foundries.
Apr 20
Long
Photonics
$11.10
-
Long LPKF as it is a critical equipment supplier for glass substrate manufacturing, a material being piloted by leading chipmakers for advanced AI packaging due to superior thermal and density characteristics.
Apr 16
Long
AI/Semi
$87.38
-
Buy SLOIF due to its monopoly supplying silicon photonics substrates to major foundries, with 4x content per device as the market shifts from pluggable transceivers to CPO engines.
Apr 14
Long
NatSec
$38.81
-
Buy FLY as it is significantly undervalued relative to peer RKLB, trading at 13x forward revenue versus 45x, and possesses a recently acquired, profitable $164M EBITDA-positive business that the market is overlooking.
Apr 13
Long
AI/Semi
$147.70
-
Buy CRDO as its acquisition of DustPhotonics directly mitigates the existential threat to its AEC business from the shift to silicon photonics, strengthening its competitive positioning and technology roadmap.
Apr 13
Long
Photonics
$9.79
-
Buy Nokia as it benefits from massive hyperscaler spending on optical networks, which are currently a bottleneck, alongside a new AI-RAN revenue stream from its Nvidia partnership.
Apr 13
Long
Photonics
$13.68
-
Go long ALMU as the company secures lucrative US government contracts and establishes a critical fabrication partnership with Tower Semiconductor, a premier Western silicon photonics foundry.
Apr 13
Long
AI/Semi
$65.51
-
Buy LASR due to escalating Middle East conflict (US Hormuz blockade) highlighting the asymmetric cost advantage of laser defenses over traditional interceptors, with a near-term catalyst from a major contract demonstration.
Apr 12
Long
Photonics
$9.79
-
Go long OPTX as it is one of the only domestic polymer optics manufacturers that qualifies under NDAA Section 834 and Anduril's strict anti-China sourcing policies.
Apr 12
Long
Photonics
$34.58
-
Viavi Solutions is positioned as a critical infrastructure provider for high-speed AI optical networks.
Mar 27
Long
Photonics
$498.97
-
Nvidia's massive infrastructure expansion plans signal significant growth opportunities for its supply chain partners.
Mar 17
Long
AI/Semi
$198.27
-
Major tech companies formed an industry alliance to standardize optical interconnects for AI infrastructure.
Mar 16
Long
AI/Semi
$328.73
-
Major tech companies formed an industry alliance to standardize optical interconnects for AI infrastructure.
Mar 16
Long
AI/Semi
$625.14
-
Major tech companies formed an industry alliance to standardize optical interconnects for AI infrastructure.
Mar 16
Long
AI/Semi
$399.25
-
Major tech companies formed an industry alliance to standardize optical interconnects for AI infrastructure.
Mar 16
Long
AI/Semi
$184.33
-
SK Hynix's exclusive technical alignment with Nvidia for HBM4 production signals strong growth potential for both companies.
Mar 16
Long
AI/Semi
$91.57
-
Silicon photonics stocks rally as GTC event drives market interest in the sector.
Mar 16
Long
Other
$19.29
-
The author highlights significant tungsten price appreciation as a major catalyst for their long positions in ALM and EQR.AX.
Mar 16
Long
Photonics
$132.05
-
The author highlights significant historical gains in the photonics sector, signaling a bullish outlook on these stocks.
Mar 15
Long
Photonics
$245.90
-
Upcoming NVIDIA GTC and OFC conferences are expected to drive significant interest in optical networking and AI infrastructure stocks.
Mar 13
Long
Photonics
$102.90
-
Upcoming NVIDIA GTC and OFC conferences are expected to drive significant interest in optical networking and AI infrastructure stocks.
Mar 13
Long
Photonics
$7.55
-
Upcoming NVIDIA GTC and OFC conferences are expected to drive significant interest in optical networking and AI infrastructure stocks.
Mar 13
Long
Photonics
$341.60
-
Upcoming NVIDIA GTC and OFC conferences are expected to drive significant interest in optical networking and AI infrastructure stocks.
Mar 13
Long
Photonics
$626.00
-
Upcoming NVIDIA GTC and OFC conferences are expected to drive significant interest in optical networking and AI infrastructure stocks.
Mar 13
Long
AI/Semi
$122.99
-
LWLG surges after signing a strategic photonics licensing deal with Tower Semiconductor.
Mar 11
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