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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
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Median
-
Top 10%
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Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
30 eval.
+0.8%
L +0.8%
S -
Win rate
47%
30 days
30 eval.
-1.9%
L -1.9%
S -
Win rate
33%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Energy
$54.14
-
Wellum explicitly mentions Enbridge and TC Energy as companies he looks at, noting they are "massive North American players" making inroads in the US despite Canadian regulatory challenges. These firms benefit from long-term energy demand from safer regions, with attractive cash flow yields and expansion opportunities in the US where economics are more favorable. LONG because they are well-positioned to capitalize on sustained energy needs and supply chain shifts over 3-5 years. Persistent political and regulatory hurdles in Canada could limit growth or increase capital costs.
Mar 31
Long
Other
$202.98
-
Wellum names Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals as "amazing" companies trading on the TSX, with Wheaton involved in a $4 billion royalty deal with BHP. These are global leaders in mining and royalties, benefiting from commodity price trends and operational scale, not limited to Canadian economic weaknesses. LONG for quality exposure to precious metals and mining sectors with strong management and financial discipline. Fluctuations in gold, silver, or other commodity prices affecting profitability and stock valuations.
Mar 31
Long
Other
$247.05
-
Wellum names Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals as "amazing" companies trading on the TSX, with Wheaton involved in a $4 billion royalty deal with BHP. These are global leaders in mining and royalties, benefiting from commodity price trends and operational scale, not limited to Canadian economic weaknesses. LONG for quality exposure to precious metals and mining sectors with strong management and financial discipline. Fluctuations in gold, silver, or other commodity prices affecting profitability and stock valuations.
Mar 31
Long
Other
$131.01
-
Wellum names Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals as "amazing" companies trading on the TSX, with Wheaton involved in a $4 billion royalty deal with BHP. These are global leaders in mining and royalties, benefiting from commodity price trends and operational scale, not limited to Canadian economic weaknesses. LONG for quality exposure to precious metals and mining sectors with strong management and financial discipline. Fluctuations in gold, silver, or other commodity prices affecting profitability and stock valuations.
Mar 31
Long
Energy
$31.29
-
Wellum states AI and digitization are driving energy demand growth of 2-3% annually, which utilities are struggling to meet. He explicitly names Brookfield Renewable (BEP), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), Cameco (CCJ), Prologis (PLD), Eaton (ETN), and Schneider Electric (SBGSY). Big Tech is bypassing regulated utilities to build their own power plants (nuclear/renewables) to feed data centers. This benefits unregulated power producers (Brookfield), uranium suppliers (Cameco), and the "pick and shovel" providers of electrical componentry (Eaton/Schneider) and data center real estate (Prologis). LONG. These are infrastructure plays on the AI capex cycle that possess hard assets and inflation protection. High valuations in the sector; regulatory pushback on energy consumption.
Feb 18
Long
Other
$380.38
-
Wellum states AI and digitization are driving energy demand growth of 2-3% annually, which utilities are struggling to meet. He explicitly names Brookfield Renewable (BEP), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), Cameco (CCJ), Prologis (PLD), Eaton (ETN), and Schneider Electric (SBGSY). Big Tech is bypassing regulated utilities to build their own power plants (nuclear/renewables) to feed data centers. This benefits unregulated power producers (Brookfield), uranium suppliers (Cameco), and the "pick and shovel" providers of electrical componentry (Eaton/Schneider) and data center real estate (Prologis). LONG. These are infrastructure plays on the AI capex cycle that possess hard assets and inflation protection. High valuations in the sector; regulatory pushback on energy consumption.
Feb 18
Long
Other
$87.03
-
Wellum argues the market has indiscriminately sold off service companies due to AI fears. He is buying ServiceNow (NOW) and likes Thomson Reuters (TRI) and Burford Capital (BUR). Not all service companies will be replaced by LLMs. Companies with proprietary, patent-protected data (Thomson Reuters' Westlaw), high switching costs (ServiceNow), or those requiring massive balance sheets for litigation finance (Burford) have moats that AI cannot easily replicate. LONG. These are value plays where the market has wrongly priced in "AI obsolescence." AI capabilities accelerating faster than expected, breaching these perceived moats.
Feb 18
Long
Fintech
$9.78
-
Wellum argues the market has indiscriminately sold off service companies due to AI fears. He is buying ServiceNow (NOW) and likes Thomson Reuters (TRI) and Burford Capital (BUR). Not all service companies will be replaced by LLMs. Companies with proprietary, patent-protected data (Thomson Reuters' Westlaw), high switching costs (ServiceNow), or those requiring massive balance sheets for litigation finance (Burford) have moats that AI cannot easily replicate. LONG. These are value plays where the market has wrongly priced in "AI obsolescence." AI capabilities accelerating faster than expected, breaching these perceived moats.
Feb 18
Long
Macro
$458.28
-
Wellum notes Gold is trading around $4,900 (in this 2026 timeline) and calls the bull market "structural." He mentions owning Royal Gold (RGLD) which, in this timeline, has acquired Sandstorm Gold. Governments globally are running massive deficits (military spending, social welfare) with debt-to-GDP over 100%. Fiscal discipline is politically impossible, making currency devaluation the only exit path. This creates a perpetual tailwind for hard assets. LONG. However, Wellum advises trimming if position sizing exceeds 25% of the portfolio to manage risk. A sudden return to balanced budgets or aggressive deflationary policies (highly unlikely per speaker).
Feb 18
Long
Other
$277.77
-
Wellum notes Gold is trading around $4,900 (in this 2026 timeline) and calls the bull market "structural." He mentions owning Royal Gold (RGLD) which, in this timeline, has acquired Sandstorm Gold. Governments globally are running massive deficits (military spending, social welfare) with debt-to-GDP over 100%. Fiscal discipline is politically impossible, making currency devaluation the only exit path. This creates a perpetual tailwind for hard assets. LONG. However, Wellum advises trimming if position sizing exceeds 25% of the portfolio to manage risk. A sudden return to balanced budgets or aggressive deflationary policies (highly unlikely per speaker).
Feb 18
Long
Other
$416.44
-
Wellum highlights the need for construction, engineering, and grid updates, mentioning Schneider Electric, Brookfield Infrastructure, Carlisle (roofing), Johnson Controls, "Verta" (Vertiv), and "Quant services" (Quanta Services). You cannot have AI without electricity and cooling. These companies provide the essential infrastructure (HVAC, roofing, grid engineering, power management) required to build and maintain the new data centers and re-shored manufacturing plants. LONG. These are the industrial enablers of the tech supercycle. Cyclical downturns in construction spending or government permitting delays.
Feb 10
Long
Other
$138.75
-
Wellum highlights the need for construction, engineering, and grid updates, mentioning Schneider Electric, Brookfield Infrastructure, Carlisle (roofing), Johnson Controls, "Verta" (Vertiv), and "Quant services" (Quanta Services). You cannot have AI without electricity and cooling. These companies provide the essential infrastructure (HVAC, roofing, grid engineering, power management) required to build and maintain the new data centers and re-shored manufacturing plants. LONG. These are the industrial enablers of the tech supercycle. Cyclical downturns in construction spending or government permitting delays.
Feb 10
Long
AI/Semi
$199.62
-
Wellum highlights the need for construction, engineering, and grid updates, mentioning Schneider Electric, Brookfield Infrastructure, Carlisle (roofing), Johnson Controls, "Verta" (Vertiv), and "Quant services" (Quanta Services). You cannot have AI without electricity and cooling. These companies provide the essential infrastructure (HVAC, roofing, grid engineering, power management) required to build and maintain the new data centers and re-shored manufacturing plants. LONG. These are the industrial enablers of the tech supercycle. Cyclical downturns in construction spending or government permitting delays.
Feb 10
Long
Other
$510.64
-
Wellum highlights the need for construction, engineering, and grid updates, mentioning Schneider Electric, Brookfield Infrastructure, Carlisle (roofing), Johnson Controls, "Verta" (Vertiv), and "Quant services" (Quanta Services). You cannot have AI without electricity and cooling. These companies provide the essential infrastructure (HVAC, roofing, grid engineering, power management) required to build and maintain the new data centers and re-shored manufacturing plants. LONG. These are the industrial enablers of the tech supercycle. Cyclical downturns in construction spending or government permitting delays.
Feb 10
Long
Energy
$151.59
-
Wellum argues fossil fuels are "hated" but necessary, and notes a shortage of uranium because "nuclear has become back in vogue" for powering data centers (citing big tech investing in nuclear). The energy demand from AI is massive. Renewables cannot provide sufficient baseload power. Therefore, capital must flow back to traditional energy (Oil/Gas) and dense energy (Uranium) to keep the lights on for the digital economy. LONG. Contrarian play on "hated" assets that are critical for grid stability. Political/Regulatory pushback against fossil fuels; safety incidents in nuclear.
Feb 10
Long
Energy
$182.26
-
Wellum argues fossil fuels are "hated" but necessary, and notes a shortage of uranium because "nuclear has become back in vogue" for powering data centers (citing big tech investing in nuclear). The energy demand from AI is massive. Renewables cannot provide sufficient baseload power. Therefore, capital must flow back to traditional energy (Oil/Gas) and dense energy (Uranium) to keep the lights on for the digital economy. LONG. Contrarian play on "hated" assets that are critical for grid stability. Political/Regulatory pushback against fossil fuels; safety incidents in nuclear.
Feb 10
Long
Energy
$118.09
-
Wellum argues fossil fuels are "hated" but necessary, and notes a shortage of uranium because "nuclear has become back in vogue" for powering data centers (citing big tech investing in nuclear). The energy demand from AI is massive. Renewables cannot provide sufficient baseload power. Therefore, capital must flow back to traditional energy (Oil/Gas) and dense energy (Uranium) to keep the lights on for the digital economy. LONG. Contrarian play on "hated" assets that are critical for grid stability. Political/Regulatory pushback against fossil fuels; safety incidents in nuclear.
Feb 10
Long
Other
$73.41
-
Wellum identifies silver as a "strategic metal" with a chronic shortage, essential for weapons, conduction, and electronics, alongside its role as a monetary debasement hedge. Silver has a dual-demand driver: industrial use (solar/AI/electronics) and monetary protection (debt/inflation). The supply-demand imbalance suggests prices must rise to incentivize new mining production. LONG. Buy the metal (SLV) or the miners (SIL) to capture the repricing. High volatility; industrial recession reducing demand.
Feb 10
Long
Consumer
$206.96
-
Wellum suggests looking for businesses that will "profit from efficiencies" of AI, naming Amazon, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow. Beyond the chipmakers, the real value of AI lies in productivity gains. These companies are integrating AI to lower costs (Amazon), improve healthcare outcomes (Intuitive Surgical), or streamline enterprise workflows (ServiceNow), which drives margin expansion. LONG. These are the "users" of AI that will monetize the technology through efficiency. High valuations; execution risk in AI integration.
Feb 10
Long
AI/Semi
$106.48
-
Wellum suggests looking for businesses that will "profit from efficiencies" of AI, naming Amazon, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow. Beyond the chipmakers, the real value of AI lies in productivity gains. These companies are integrating AI to lower costs (Amazon), improve healthcare outcomes (Intuitive Surgical), or streamline enterprise workflows (ServiceNow), which drives margin expansion. LONG. These are the "users" of AI that will monetize the technology through efficiency. High valuations; execution risk in AI integration.
Feb 10
Long
Healthcare
$495.15
-
Wellum suggests looking for businesses that will "profit from efficiencies" of AI, naming Amazon, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow. Beyond the chipmakers, the real value of AI lies in productivity gains. These companies are integrating AI to lower costs (Amazon), improve healthcare outcomes (Intuitive Surgical), or streamline enterprise workflows (ServiceNow), which drives margin expansion. LONG. These are the "users" of AI that will monetize the technology through efficiency. High valuations; execution risk in AI integration.
Feb 10
Long
Other
$172.53
-
Wellum states that data centers "have to be owned by somebody, they have to be run by somebody" and specifically names Digital Realty and Prologis as beneficiaries. The AI and robotics revolution requires physical infrastructure. While tech stocks are expensive, the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that own the physical server farms and logistics hubs provide a tangible way to play the digital growth theme with hard assets. LONG. These are the landlords of the AI revolution. Interest rate sensitivity affecting REIT valuations.
Feb 10
Long
Other
$140.48
-
Wellum states that data centers "have to be owned by somebody, they have to be run by somebody" and specifically names Digital Realty and Prologis as beneficiaries. The AI and robotics revolution requires physical infrastructure. While tech stocks are expensive, the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that own the physical server farms and logistics hubs provide a tangible way to play the digital growth theme with hard assets. LONG. These are the landlords of the AI revolution. Interest rate sensitivity affecting REIT valuations.
Feb 10
Long
Other
$61.37
-
Wellum highlights the need for construction, engineering, and grid updates, mentioning Schneider Electric, Brookfield Infrastructure, Carlisle (roofing), Johnson Controls, "Verta" (Vertiv), and "Quant services" (Quanta Services). You cannot have AI without electricity and cooling. These companies provide the essential infrastructure (HVAC, roofing, grid engineering, power management) required to build and maintain the new data centers and re-shored manufacturing plants. LONG. These are the industrial enablers of the tech supercycle. Cyclical downturns in construction spending or government permitting delays.
Feb 10
Long
Energy
$39.00
-
Wellum highlights the need for construction, engineering, and grid updates, mentioning Schneider Electric, Brookfield Infrastructure, Carlisle (roofing), Johnson Controls, "Verta" (Vertiv), and "Quant services" (Quanta Services). You cannot have AI without electricity and cooling. These companies provide the essential infrastructure (HVAC, roofing, grid engineering, power management) required to build and maintain the new data centers and re-shored manufacturing plants. LONG. These are the industrial enablers of the tech supercycle. Cyclical downturns in construction spending or government permitting delays.
Feb 10
Long
Macro
$204.16
-
"You have to stand back and say, 'What is my book value?'... making sure the valuations are good... find companies that have a economic moat and they have a quality around them." The speaker explicitly warns against "chasing trends" and overpaying. He advocates for a "Margin of Safety" and "Economic Moats." In ETF terms, this translates to the Quality Factor (strong balance sheets, stable earnings) and the Value Factor (low price-to-book, reasonable valuations). Long Quality and Value factors as a core portfolio defense against volatility. Value traps (cheap stocks that stay cheap); underperformance during speculative bull runs.
Feb 05
Long
Other
$87.45
-
"We're going to need that copper or gold or silver... make sure they have cash for the next year or two years in order to fulfill their drilling... margins on this business." The speaker argues that despite price volatility, the long-term fundamental demand for hard assets remains intact. He specifically points to the "business" side (drilling, margins, cash flow), implying that the best way to play this is through high-quality mining companies (Producers) with strong balance sheets rather than just the physical metal. Long basket of Copper, Gold, and Silver miners. Commodity price crashes; operational risks in mining (geopolitical, labor); rising input costs squeezing margins.
Feb 05
Long
Other
$105.93
-
"We're going to need that copper or gold or silver... make sure they have cash for the next year or two years in order to fulfill their drilling... margins on this business." The speaker argues that despite price volatility, the long-term fundamental demand for hard assets remains intact. He specifically points to the "business" side (drilling, margins, cash flow), implying that the best way to play this is through high-quality mining companies (Producers) with strong balance sheets rather than just the physical metal. Long basket of Copper, Gold, and Silver miners. Commodity price crashes; operational risks in mining (geopolitical, labor); rising input costs squeezing margins.
Feb 05
Long
Other
$106.65
-
"We're going to need that copper or gold or silver... make sure they have cash for the next year or two years in order to fulfill their drilling... margins on this business." The speaker argues that despite price volatility, the long-term fundamental demand for hard assets remains intact. He specifically points to the "business" side (drilling, margins, cash flow), implying that the best way to play this is through high-quality mining companies (Producers) with strong balance sheets rather than just the physical metal. Long basket of Copper, Gold, and Silver miners. Commodity price crashes; operational risks in mining (geopolitical, labor); rising input costs squeezing margins.
Feb 05
Long
AI/Semi
$202.30
-
"You have to stand back and say, 'What is my book value?'... making sure the valuations are good... find companies that have a economic moat and they have a quality around them." The speaker explicitly warns against "chasing trends" and overpaying. He advocates for a "Margin of Safety" and "Economic Moats." In ETF terms, this translates to the Quality Factor (strong balance sheets, stable earnings) and the Value Factor (low price-to-book, reasonable valuations). Long Quality and Value factors as a core portfolio defense against volatility. Value traps (cheap stocks that stay cheap); underperformance during speculative bull runs.
Feb 05
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