Best trades
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Worst trades
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
28 eval.
+2.1%
L +2.3%
S +1.3%
Win rate
61%
30 days
24 eval.
+2.2%
L +3.8%
S -6.3%
Win rate
38%
90 days
4 eval.
+6.2%
L +6.2%
S -
Win rate
75%
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
AI/Semi
$29.95
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$108.30
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$397.60
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$1574.08
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$48.97
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$37.36
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$67.50
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$16.33
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$17.68
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$280.10
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$93.60
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$56.55
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$103.28
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
AI/Semi
$43.01
-
Long analog semis in the AI power infrastructure basket as the analog cycle has turned and content per server rises, offering asymmetric upside versus memory/optics/compute re-ratings.
May 03
Long
Photonics
$13.34
-
Buy NOK for 100%+ upside as Infinera acquisition strengthens data center optical footprint, driving favored vendor status for Nvidia's AI-RAN push, with 50% operating profit growth guided into 2028.
May 02
Long
Other
$147.03
-
Buy BAND and TWLO as AI infrastructure drives earnings beats beyond semiconductors, with recent strong results confirming the tailwind.
Apr 30
Long
Other
$36.50
-
Buy BAND and TWLO as AI infrastructure drives earnings beats beyond semiconductors, with recent strong results confirming the tailwind.
Apr 30
Long
AI/Semi
$177.49
-
Buy QCOM as a contrarian bet on edge AI or memory efficiency breakthroughs that could squeeze shorts and re-rate cheap stock, with multi-month horizon.
Apr 29
Long
AI/Semi
$525.62
-
Long SiTime Corporation (SITM) based on its position as a key supplier in Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) supply chain, as identified in a proprietary deep-dive research report.
Apr 22
Long
AI/Semi
$59.49
-
Go long GFS and UMC as consensus underestimates their positive earnings potential, with detailed catalysts outlined in the firm’s semiconductor memo.
Apr 20
Long
Other
$41.40
-
US petrochemical companies benefit from cheap domestic feedstock and structurally higher global prices due to destroyed Middle Eastern capacity that will take years to rebuild.
Apr 05
Long
Other
$119.40
-
US petrochemical companies benefit from cheap domestic feedstock and structurally higher global prices due to destroyed Middle Eastern capacity that will take years to rebuild.
Apr 05
Long
Macro
$28.34
-
The author reviews past macro trade performance, highlighting significant gains in oil and tankers alongside losses in Bitcoin and international equities.
Mar 27
Long
AI/Semi
$116.00
-
Akamai is repurposing its CDN footprint for AI compute (Akamai Inference Cloud) and benefiting from surging API security demand as agentic traffic grows.
Mar 25
Long
NeoCloud
$28.77
-
Fastly is seen as the highest-convexity CDN play; its AI Accelerator and Compute platform are benefiting from agentic traffic, pushing it into positive free cash flow.
Mar 25
Long
Fintech
$104.71
-
Circle (CRCL) is the issuer of USDC and Circle Nanopayments, positioning it as the stablecoin payments rail for agentic microtransactions.
Mar 25
Long
AI/Semi
$217.00
-
Cloudflare is evolving into a comprehensive agentic play with Workers, Durable Objects, stablecoin (NET Dollar), and governance tools—though valuation is already elevated.
Mar 25
Short
Macro
$36.54
-
Author is actively positioned for downside in high-yield credit, holding a disproportionately large short position in junk bonds.
Mar 21
Short
Macro
$455.89
-
Speaker discloses an active short position in DIA alongside larger USHY and IGV shorts; positioning bearishly against Dow Jones equities.
Mar 21
Short
AI/Semi
$82.99
-
Speaker discloses an active short in IGV (software ETF) alongside DIA and USHY shorts; explicit current bearish positioning on tech software.
Mar 21
Long
Other
$77.45
-
The author reiterates a long position in BWET, expecting further upside based on their "Iran Conflict Beta" macro theme which they believe is not fully priced in.
Mar 18
Long
Macro
$670.42
-
The author expects a sharp move up in the S&P 500, causing put options (bets on a downturn) to rapidly lose their value.
Mar 16
Long
Fintech
$103.85
-
The author would buy Apollo on a dip due to a belief in management's foresight, evidenced by their early reduction of software exposure due to AI risks.
Mar 16
Long
Energy
$104.23
-
The author is taking a contrarian long position in oil, betting that the sharp sell-off on geopolitical news is overdone or a fadeable event.
Mar 09
Short
Energy
$112.69
-
The author has entered a short position on oil with defined risk (a tight stop), indicating a high-conviction belief in near-term downside.
Mar 09
Long
AI/Semi
$87.97
-
The author expects a short squeeze in SaaS stocks, driven by upcoming positive earnings surprises as large companies increase their software budgets to incorporate new AI coding capabilities.
Mar 06
Long
AI/Semi
$154.79
-
The author makes a strong valuation call, suggesting that Oracle is significantly undervalued at the current price level compared to its prior peak.
Mar 05
Long
AI/Semi
$53.06
-
nLIGHT is evolving from a component supplier to a system integrator in directed energy weapons, with multi-year growth driven by programs like HELSI, Iron Beam, and potential Golden Dome contracts. Th
Feb 18
Long
Other
$73.55
-
SOLS operates the only US uranium hexafluoride conversion facility; legacy contracts are rolling off at triple the price, leading to mechanical margin expansion. The market undervalues the nuclear seg
Feb 11
Long
Other
$90.19
-
Copper demand from data centers, electrification, and supply constraints (Grasberg offline, Kamoa-Kakula flooding) support a bullish stance on copper miners via the ETF COPX.
Feb 11
Long
Other
$53.64
-
CENX is a high-beta play on US re-industrialization and aluminum supply tightness, though the EGA joint venture carries execution risk. Author recommends sizing smaller.
Feb 11
Long
AI/Semi
$47.48
-
1. THE FACT: The speaker states, "I’m bullish on the long term intel story."
2. THE BRIDGE: Despite the short-term disappointments mentioned in tweet [11], the speaker maintains a positive long-term outlook on Intel's fundamental story.
3. THE VERDICT: Bullish on INTC for the long term, despite potential short-term volatility or disappointment.
Jan 22
Long
AI/Semi
$183.32
-
1. THE FACT: The speaker notes a recurring pattern: "fear of Japanese rates has caused a selloff," and in response, they are "preparing to buy Nvidia" in 2022, 2024, and now 2026.
2. THE BRIDGE: The speaker views selloffs driven by "fear of Japanese rates" as a temporary market overreaction that creates a buying opportunity for NVDA, which has historically recovered.
3. THE VERDICT: Buy NVDA on dips caused by fear of Japanese rates, as this is seen as a recurring buying opportunity.
Jan 21
Long
Fintech
$22.53
-
1. THE FACT: Four months ago, the author outlined a thesis that Trump would direct "quasi-QE" by directing GSEs to buy MBS, potentially removing the post-GFC cap entirely. This was part of the reasoning for getting long RKT. The author still believes this is where things are headed.
2. THE BRIDGE: If Trump's policy leads to GSEs buying MBS, it would likely stimulate the housing and mortgage markets, benefiting companies like RKT. The author's continued conviction reinforces the potential for this policy to materialize and impact the stock positively.
3. THE VERDICT: Long RKT based on the expectation of Trump-era "quasi-QE" policies benefiting the mortgage market.
Jan 08
Long
AI/Semi
$340.60
-
1. THE FACT: A year and a half ago, expecting Micron to double in two years was controversial. Now, it's controversial *not* to expect it to double in the next two weeks.
2. THE BRIDGE: This indicates extremely strong positive momentum and market sentiment for Micron, suggesting a continued upward trend. The shift from long-term doubling to short-term doubling implies an accelerating bullish outlook.
3. THE VERDICT: Long MU due to rapidly accelerating bullish sentiment and price momentum.
Jan 07
Showing 46 of 46 picks
Ticker posts
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