Best trades
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
27 eval.
+3.4%
L +3.4%
S +3.4%
Win rate
89%
30 days
20 eval.
+4.9%
L +3.6%
S +10.0%
Win rate
70%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Photonics
$896.50
-
The company reports accelerating demand and a multi-year filled order book, signaling sustained revenue visibility and bullish fundamentals.
Apr 10
Long
Energy
$681.50
-
A potential earnings beat could trigger a short squeeze in CATL shares, driven by existing positive momentum from rising energy prices.
Apr 10
Long
AI/Semi
$422.06
-
Go long semiconductor stocks as they are the essential infrastructure for accelerating AI investment and spending.
Apr 08
Long
Macro
$36.28
-
Long Chinese banks (via FXI) due to attractive yields and improving earnings prospects expected to drive further outperformance.
Apr 07
Long
Macro
$88.00
-
A geopolitical de-escalation reduces the regional risk premium and is forward-looking positive for Japanese equity markets.
Apr 07
Long
Energy
$46.12
-
Surging US electricity demand from data centers is driving significant capital investment, indicating a long-term bullish outlook for the US utilities/energy infrastructure sector.
Apr 07
Long
Macro
$86.67
-
The market is overreacting to potential Fed balance sheet changes, so bonds (TLT) are likely to rise as the reality of a slower, more limited policy shift sets in.
Apr 06
Long
NatSec
$220.40
-
The proposed US defense budget expansion is a forward-looking policy catalyst that should create a tailwind for major defense contractors.
Apr 02
Long
Macro
$37.78
-
Below-normal snowfall in Norway will reduce its hydropower output, leading to tighter European energy supply and higher regional power prices, benefiting Norwegian energy exporters.
Apr 02
Long
Macro
$46.73
-
India's climate policy commitment is expected to drive capital inflows and growth in companies involved in grid modernization and energy storage.
Apr 02
Long
Macro
$57.86
-
The geopolitical conflict creates inflationary pressure, increasing the likelihood of a near-term BOJ rate hike, which should support the Japanese Yen.
Apr 02
Long
Macro
$93.80
-
Long Malaysian bonds (via EMB) as the Iran conflict-driven rise in oil prices improves the fiscal and economic outlook for the energy-exporting country, attracting capital flows.
Apr 02
Long
Energy
$17.61
-
The Indian Rupee (INR) is expected to weaken further due to increased demand for USD as banks unwind large-scale arbitrage trades.
Apr 01
Long
Healthcare
$35.26
-
Novo Nordisk's aggressive pricing and subscription strategy is a direct competitive move to regain market share from LLY, which could positively impact its stock price.
Mar 31
Long
Healthcare
$70.63
-
Management's strategic shift from net closures to net openings signals a positive inflection point for the business and potential for revenue growth recovery.
Mar 30
Long
Other
$16.35
-
Long oil tanker shipping stocks (or the sector ETF) as current market conditions are presented as exceptionally favorable for owner profitability.
Mar 30
Long
Macro
$637.08
-
Current bearish positioning in US equities creates the setup for a sharp short squeeze if geopolitical tensions subside.
Mar 27
Long
Consumer
$27.10
-
Go long Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) as an M&A arbitrage play, as its shares are undervalued due to market skepticism around the acquisition by Paramount Skydance.
Mar 27
Long
Energy
$116.15
-
Go long oil as prices could spike to $200 a barrel if the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure persist into the summer.
Mar 27
Short
Other
$28.51
-
"Over 10,000 flights into and around the US were canceled through Tuesday. Most of them originated or terminated in New York, Boston and Philadelphia." This is a massive disruption to the national aviation network. The Northeast corridor is the most profitable region for legacy carriers. 10,000 cancellations will result in material revenue hits and increased compensation costs for Q1 earnings, specifically hurting carriers with major hubs in these cities (United at Newark, Delta at JFK/LGA, American at Philadelphia). SHORT airline equities exposed to the Northeast corridor. Airlines may have weather waivers in place that mitigate some passenger compensation costs, or the market may view this as a "one-off" event.
Feb 23
Short
Other
$12.93
-
"Over 10,000 flights into and around the US were canceled through Tuesday. Most of them originated or terminated in New York, Boston and Philadelphia." This is a massive disruption to the national aviation network. The Northeast corridor is the most profitable region for legacy carriers. 10,000 cancellations will result in material revenue hits and increased compensation costs for Q1 earnings, specifically hurting carriers with major hubs in these cities (United at Newark, Delta at JFK/LGA, American at Philadelphia). SHORT airline equities exposed to the Northeast corridor. Airlines may have weather waivers in place that mitigate some passenger compensation costs, or the market may view this as a "one-off" event.
Feb 23
Short
Other
$107.17
-
"Over 10,000 flights into and around the US were canceled through Tuesday. Most of them originated or terminated in New York, Boston and Philadelphia." This is a massive disruption to the national aviation network. The Northeast corridor is the most profitable region for legacy carriers. 10,000 cancellations will result in material revenue hits and increased compensation costs for Q1 earnings, specifically hurting carriers with major hubs in these cities (United at Newark, Delta at JFK/LGA, American at Philadelphia). SHORT airline equities exposed to the Northeast corridor. Airlines may have weather waivers in place that mitigate some passenger compensation costs, or the market may view this as a "one-off" event.
Feb 23
Short
Other
$66.88
-
"Over 10,000 flights into and around the US were canceled through Tuesday. Most of them originated or terminated in New York, Boston and Philadelphia." This is a massive disruption to the national aviation network. The Northeast corridor is the most profitable region for legacy carriers. 10,000 cancellations will result in material revenue hits and increased compensation costs for Q1 earnings, specifically hurting carriers with major hubs in these cities (United at Newark, Delta at JFK/LGA, American at Philadelphia). SHORT airline equities exposed to the Northeast corridor. Airlines may have weather waivers in place that mitigate some passenger compensation costs, or the market may view this as a "one-off" event.
Feb 23
Long
Energy
$227.45
-
"Heavy snowfall, combined with high winds, led to power outages in New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia and Maryland." Generac (GNRC) is the dominant player in residential backup generators. News of widespread power outages in affluent suburbs (NJ, VA, MD) historically drives immediate spikes in search traffic and sales for home standby generators as homeowners seek grid independence. LONG on the sentiment shift regarding grid reliability. If power is restored too quickly, the "fear trade" for generators may fade before translating into quarterly sales.
Feb 23
Long
Other
$42.64
-
"Mayor... warning some areas may see 28 inches of snow." Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) manufactures snow and ice control equipment (plows, spreaders). A 28-inch storm is a "replacement cycle" event; equipment breaks under heavy load, and municipalities deplete their budgets on parts and new gear. This is a direct revenue driver for their core business. LONG as a pure-play weather derivative. Mild weather following the storm could cap the upside; the stock is often low liquidity.
Feb 23
Long
Energy
$11.74
-
"Millions of people... stuck at home... blizzard conditions." A massive freeze and stay-at-home order across the Northeast (the highest density of natural gas heating in the US) implies a sharp spike in heating degree days (HDDs). This draws down natural gas inventories faster than average, supporting prices. LONG Natural Gas exposure. If the storm is followed immediately by a warm front, the demand spike will be transient.
Feb 23
Long
Energy
$17.06
-
"Millions of people... stuck at home... blizzard conditions." A massive freeze and stay-at-home order across the Northeast (the highest density of natural gas heating in the US) implies a sharp spike in heating degree days (HDDs). This draws down natural gas inventories faster than average, supporting prices. LONG Natural Gas exposure. If the storm is followed immediately by a warm front, the demand spike will be transient.
Feb 23
Showing 27 of 27 picks
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