Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
19 eval.
+1.3%
L +1.7%
S -0.7%
Win rate
63%
30 days
16 eval.
-1.9%
L -2.7%
S +1.2%
Win rate
44%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Closed-window returns from the first opened position per ticker/side.
90d = picks opened 90+ days ago
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Energy
$54.35
+9.3%
The author reiterates a long-held thesis that the failure of the EV/ESG narrative will be a long-term tailwind for the traditional energy sector.
Feb 14
Short
Other
$25.76
+0.0%
Short $JETS as rising fuel prices create a severe cost burden for airlines, directly compressing margins and worsening profitability.
May 04
Long
Healthcare
$132.48
+1.2%
Neurocrine's acquisition of Soleno adds a promising late-stage asset, providing strategic long-term growth for NBIX.
Apr 07
Long
Healthcare
$52.30
+1.1%
Buyout announcement creates a clear, immediate arbitrage opportunity to go long SLNO as it will trade up toward the acquisition price.
Apr 07
Long
AI/Semi
$322.06
+31.6%
Securing major AI chip supply deals with Google and Anthropic strengthens AVGO's competitive position and drives forward revenue growth in AI infrastructure.
Apr 07
Long
Other
$82.65
+1.2%
Rising feedstock costs (30-118%) are a fundamental driver for higher fertilizer prices and company profits, suggesting a long position in the fertilizer sector.
Mar 29
Long
Fintech
$55.16
+10.4%
The Invesco Global Private Equity ETF has drawn down 34% from its 2021 peak, presenting an attractive valuation to begin scaling into a long position.
Mar 21
Long
Fintech
$12.48
+6.6%
Business Development Companies (BDCs) are trading at valuation discounts to NAV not seen since the COVID-19 crisis lows, implying a significant potential buying opportunity.
Mar 14
Short
Macro
$665.84
-8.6%
Barbarian Capital (@BarbarianCap)
this should be a SPY -5% event
zerohedge (@zerohedge)
Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command for an element of an amphibious ready group and a
Mar 13
Short
Consumer
$0.67
-21.6%
The company is a short candidate as it has issued a "going concern" warning and stated it lacks sufficient liquidity for the next 12 months, signaling severe financial distress.
Mar 12
Long
Energy
$104.33
+37.1%
The author suggests the current oil market is experiencing a structural dislocation inverse to the April 2020 price collapse, implying a potential for an extreme, parabolic move to the upside.
Mar 09
Long
Macro
$483.75
-13.1%
The author suggests gold is poised for a significant price increase, as even a marginal 1 basis point rise in currently tiny allocations would result in a 1.5% price appreciation.
Mar 01
Long
AI/Semi
$637.25
-5.5%
Facebook's new automated ad creation and distribution tools will be a net positive for the company by capturing more revenue from small advertisers.
Feb 23
Short
Energy
$46.33
-0.3%
The author predicts a collapse in the utilities sector, prompted by political movements towards government seizure of electricity infrastructure.
Feb 21
Showing 15 of 20 picks · sorted by mentions
Ticker posts
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