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Feb 17
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AVOID
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Momei Qu
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Qu notes that sectors with "structured data" like the legal space are "more prone to disruption with Large Language Models." Unlike construction (physical/vertical), legal work involves processing text/data—the exact capability where AI excels. This makes current legal tech incumbents highly vulnerable to displacement by cheaper AI agents. AVOID/SHORT Legal Tech. Regulatory moats protect incumbents longer than expected. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/17/2026
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Marvin Loh
Global Senior Macro Strategist, State Street
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"I would say equal duration makes sense... think through some of the more stable aspects of the technology sector... Gold... is no longer that safety hedge." State Street believes the "Risk On" trade is rotating, not ending. Volatility requires a safety anchor, but Gold and Swiss Franc are too expensive. Therefore, the best risk-adjusted allocation is "Equal Duration" (buying Treasuries to lock in yields as the Fed cuts) and "Stable Tech" (Cash-rich, profitable tech, not speculative AI startups). LONG TLT (Duration) and Quality Tech. AVOID Gold (XAU) as a hedge. Inflation re-accelerating (above 2%) would hurt the long duration bond trade. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stock Futures Slide; US, Iran Hold Talks in G...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Neil Campling
Tech/TMT Analyst
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"I think at this point there are three or four platforms that had the scale that could be an alternative source... And, of course, the Pentagon has had some deep relationships with of the big tech companies for a number of years." Anthropic's ethical hesitation ("safeguards against basically mass surveillance") creates a friction point in securing government defense contracts. The Pentagon's demand for AI capability is urgent. If Anthropic stalls, the capital and contracts will flow to the "alternative sources" — the legacy Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) who already possess the required scale and deep, existing security clearances/relationships with the DoD. LONG US Big Tech as the default beneficiary of defense AI spending when ethical pure-plays (like Anthropic) decline participation. Regulatory pressure on Big Tech regarding AI safety could increase; Anthropic might eventually concede to secure revenue. |
Bloomberg Markets
Anthropic in Disagreement With Pentagon Over ...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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John Micklethwait
Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg
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Micklethwait observes, "Americans are winning white-collar AI, ChatGPT, Anthropic and Gemini." The geopolitical landscape is splitting technology stacks. The US has a distinct lead in the "brain" of AI (LLMs and software). As global instability rises, capital will flow to the winners of the "White Collar" AI race for safety and growth. Long US Big Tech (specifically Model Providers) as the dominant force in generative AI. Regulatory crackdown; AI capex bubble. |
Bloomberg Markets
Poland’s Sikorski Says Europe Deserves Role i...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Adam Anderson
Florida State Representative
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Anderson argues that the "Sunshine Genetics Act" solves the primary bottleneck for the industry: finding the patients. He notes the industry is projected to reach $100 billion. Big Pharma (specifically mentioning Merck) cannot justify investing in cures for diseases with only 16 patients due to ROI. However, by using state funds to de-risk early research and identify patients at birth (before symptoms), the state aggregates these "rare" cases into a large, investable asset class (30 million total people). This creates a "market" where none existed, inviting capital into the space. There are nearly 10,000 known rare diseases affecting 30 million Americans (more than the population of Texas or Florida). Regulatory hurdles and the high cost of gene therapies remain significant barriers to entry. |
CNBC
What If We Can Get To Them Before They Have S...
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Feb 09
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WATCH
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Alex Kantrowitz
Founder of Big Technology
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The market is in a period of high volatility regarding AI stocks because investors cannot yet identify the ultimate winners. Uncertainty is high. Investors don't know if value will accrue to chipmakers, model builders, or app developers. Consequently, earnings reports will cause "wild swings" as the market aggressively reprices based on limited data. Tech giants are spending $50B over expectations on CapEx, signaling a massive, blind bet on transformation. Companies overspending on CapEx without immediate returns could punish stock prices. |
CNBC
Market rotation holds as AI uncertainty keeps...
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Feb 06
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"Household income growth remains soft... savings rate declines require elevated wealth levels, which are likely to be supported by Easy Street policies ahead." Also, "Job growth is running just above zero and seems to be sticking there." A frozen labor market with soft income growth reduces inflationary pressure from wages, providing the central bank with more room to pursue accommodative "Easy Street policies." These policies (e.g., lower interest rates, liquidity) typically support higher valuations for growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, by lowering the discount rate on future earnings. Long growth stocks/tech sector on the expectation of continued accommodative monetary policy due to a stagnant labor market and soft income growth, which supports asset valuations. A sudden pickup in inflation (non-wage related), an unexpected hawkish pivot by the central bank despite labor market data, or a significant deterioration in corporate earnings. |
Nonconsensus
Frozen Labor Market Persists
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Jan 30
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WATCH
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Anthony Pompliano
Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
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Pomp lists his favorite investments as "problem solvers," specifically naming Varda (space manufacturing for pharmaceuticals) and Rainmaker (weather modification drones). Smart capital is moving into "Hard Tech" and "Deep Tech" that solves physical problems (health, weather) rather than just software/SaaS. While these specific companies are private, this signals a sector rotation toward industrial innovation. Watch for public proxies in Space Economy and Climate Tech. High capital intensity and long time horizons for commercial viability. |
The Block
Pompliano: Forget inflation, bitcoin's price ...
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