|
Feb 18
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Brian Armstrong
CEO of Coinbase
|
"The CFTC has exclusive authority over these types of contracts... Coinbase has been building out what we call the everything exchange... We also launched prediction markets." Despite state-level attempts to ban prediction markets as "gambling," the CFTC is stepping in to claim federal jurisdiction. This regulatory cover allows major compliant exchanges (like Coinbase) to enter the sector, legitimizing it as a financial derivative rather than a casino game. Long Prediction Markets infrastructure and platforms. Supreme Court challenges regarding state preemption; potential reversal of CFTC stance. |
CNBC
Watch CNBC's full interview with Coinbase CEO...
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Ding X
Founder of Predict.fun / Co-Founder of PancakeSwap
|
Ding X observes, "A lot of my friends in NFTs went to memecoins... and then maybe to prediction markets... that's where the money flows." This describes the "Speculative Liquidity Pipeline." The market is currently saturated with Memecoins. Smart money builders are positioning for the *next* bucket, which is Prediction Markets. The trade is to front-run this rotation. Watch for the peak of the Memecoin cycle to rotate profits into Prediction Market governance tokens or infrastructure. Memecoin supercycle lasts longer than expected; retail users find prediction markets too complex compared to simple token gambling. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson and Ding X on Predict.Fun, ...
|
|
Feb 18
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Katherine Wu
Host / Starkware
|
CFTC Chair Behnam explicitly stated the agency "would no longer stand idle" while states infringe on their jurisdiction regarding prediction markets. The CFTC is effectively positioning itself as the federal shield for prediction markets against a patchwork of state-level bans. If the CFTC wins this "federal preemption" argument (likely heading to the Supreme Court), it legitimizes the asset class and removes the existential risk of 50 separate state battles. Long the sector. The regulatory headwinds are converting into a federal framework that favors established players. Supreme Court rules in favor of States' rights, fragmenting the market. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Power, Political Pressure, and Real-Wo...
|
|
Feb 17
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
—
|
Gemini gained a US license to offer prediction markets and hopes this will be a "growth driver." While this is a strategic pivot, the reporter explicitly states, "that's not alone gonna be able to kind of drive enough growth at this point." WATCH. Do not buy into the "Prediction Markets" narrative as a savior for distressed crypto firms yet. The segment is growing but insufficient to plug the hole created by negative free cash flow in the core exchange business. Prediction markets could see explosive adoption faster than anticipated, becoming a significant revenue stream. |
Bloomberg Markets
Winklevosses’ Crypto Exchange Gemini Loses Th...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Vlad Tenev
CEO, Robinhood
|
"We're just at the beginning of a prediction market supercycle... prediction markets attract a new type of customer." Prediction markets are being treated as a new asset class, not just a novelty. By launching "Rothera" (an exchange JV with SIG) and integrating it into the main app, Robinhood aims to institutionalize event wagering. This expands the Total Addressable Market (TAM) beyond equities and crypto. LONG. The sector is moving from niche/offshore to regulated/mainstream. Regulatory intervention (CFTC) classifying these strictly as gambling rather than hedging instruments. |
Bloomberg Markets
Robinhood CEO Still 'Tremendously' Bullish on...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Katrina Paglia
Chief Legal Officer, Pantera Capital
|
Paglia states that prediction markets are "getting mass adoption" and that "a bunch of them are popping up now." Unlike speculative trading which dries up in a bear market, prediction markets offer utility (hedging/information) that persists. Mass adoption implies sticky user growth independent of asset prices. Long the platforms facilitating decentralized betting and information aggregation. Regulatory crackdowns on gambling/betting classifications in major jurisdictions. |
Bloomberg Markets
Crypto Crashes Rattle Venture Capitalists
|
|
Feb 10
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
—
|
Retail capital is aggressively rotating out of the general crypto trade and moving into prediction markets. Retail traders, who previously provided volatility and liquidity in crypto, are seeking new speculative vehicles and have identified prediction markets as the new venue for high-velocity trading. The speaker notes that retail has "really moved on" from crypto to this sector. Regulatory crackdowns on betting/prediction platforms. |
CNBC
Why bitcoin is lingering around $70,000
|
|
Feb 06
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Jason Robins
CEO, DraftKings
|
The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) withdrew a proposed rule that would have banned sports contracts on prediction markets and is returning to the table to create guidelines. This signals a shift from potential prohibition to regulation. Regulatory clarity is the "green light" for the asset class to mature from a niche/gray market into a standardized industry where major corporate players can participate. The CFTC Chairman's comments were viewed by DraftKings as a "positive step" toward clarity. Specifics of the guidelines are unknown; future taxation on prediction markets could dampen their competitive advantage over traditional sportsbooks. |
CNBC
Draftkings CEO on Super Bowl: 'We're expectin...
|
|
Feb 01
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Evgeny Gaevoy
CEO and Founder, Wintermute
|
"Prediction markets... going to be a even bigger theme for this year... especially because of midterms." As the US Midterm elections approach (Nov 2026), volume and attention will surge in prediction markets. However, Gaevoy warns that for market makers (and by extension, traders providing liquidity), the risk of "insider trading" or information asymmetry is high. WATCH (Participate directionally if you have a view, but do NOT provide passive liquidity/AMM). Regulatory crackdowns or manipulated outcomes causing losses for liquidity providers. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Looking for Gains Right Now? Crypto Isn’t the...
|
|
Jan 29
|
|
—
|
AVOID
|
Laura Walter
Founder/CPA, CryptoTaxGirl
|
"In 2026, the... bill limits gambling losses to now 90% of winnings... You technically broke even. But on your return, you actually now... pay tax on $10,000 of phantom gambling income." Prediction markets are treated as gambling. The new 2026 tax law creates a mathematical disadvantage for high-volume traders. If you bet $100k and win $100k (break even), you can only deduct $90k of losses, leaving you with $10k of taxable income despite making $0 profit. This destroys the liquidity incentives for market makers and heavy users. AVOID. The tax code now penalizes volume on these platforms. Legislation could change or "Parity Act" could reclassify these assets. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Your 2025 Crypto Tax Guide: What You Need To ...
|